Stock Analysis | Oneok Outlook - Technical Weakness Overshadows Mixed Fundamental Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Oneok (OKE) is showing signs of technical weakness with no bullish signals in recent technical analysis and three bearish indicators, suggesting investors should tread carefully. Meanwhile, fundamentals remain mixed with a 3.63 internal diagnostic score (0-10).

News Highlights

Here are the key stories shaping the energy and infrastructure landscape:

• Colombia oil and gas E&P investment could jump 8% in 2025, potentially boosting global energy demand and indirectly benefiting midstream operators like Oneok.
• Kazakhstan is reconsidering the development of a major gas refinery without international oil majors, which could alter regional gas dynamics and influence infrastructure needs in North America.
• President Tinubu’s new executive order in Nigeria aims to boost oil and gas efficiency, hinting at a broader push for energy infrastructure growth globally.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are cautiously balanced on Oneok, with two recent ratings: a Buy from Morgan Stanley and a Neutral from RBC Capital. The simple average rating score is 3.50, while the weighted rating score is 3.23, both indicating a fairly neutral stance.

These scores are consistent with the current price trend, which shows a modest rise of 0.37% over the last week, suggesting that market expectations are generally in line with recent price action.

Key fundamental metrics as of the latest available data include:

• Return on Total Assets (ROTA): 4.48% (score: 2.48 internal diagnostic score).
• Net Income-to-Revenue Ratio: 19.47% (score: 2.87 internal diagnostic score).
• Profit-to-Market Value Ratio: 71.43% (score: 2.48 internal diagnostic score).
• Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: 0.27 (score: 3.34 internal diagnostic score).

While these metrics show some strength in efficiency, the overall fundamental score of 3.63 highlights the mixed nature of Oneok’s fundamentals, with several underperforming indicators dragging the overall score.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is currently cautious on Oneok, with the fund-flow score at 7.93, a good rating that indicates a positive inflow at the institutional level.

• Extra-large investor inflow ratio is 50.05%, the only positive trend among major investor sizes.
• However, block, large, and medium money are all flowing out, with outflow ratios above 49% for all three categories.
• Retail investors are also showing weakness, with a 47.42% inflow ratio, which is below average for active stocks.

This suggests while short-term momentum is positive at the top end, the broader market remains cautious, and investors may be locking in profits or waiting for more clarity.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Oneok is in a weak position with a technical score of 3.23, a internal diagnostic score (0-10), and zero bullish indicators versus three bearish ones.

Recent chart signals include:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold on 2025-08-12, 2025-08-15, and 2025-08-18 – scored at 2.62 (weak internal signal).
• MACD Golden Cross on 2025-08-25 – scored at 3.08 (still weak, suggesting limited upside potential).
• Dividend Payable Date on 2025-08-14 – scored at 3.99 (relatively stronger, but still not enough to counterbearish momentum).

These signals point to weak momentum and a lack of clear direction in the technical landscape. The market is in a relatively calm phase, with few actionable signals emerging from recent chart patterns.

Conclusion

Oneok remains a stock with mixed signals. While the fund-flow patterns and modest price rise offer some short-term optimism, the technical score of 3.23 and lack of bullish indicators suggest a cautious stance is warranted.

Consider waiting for a clearer breakout signal or a pull-back to more attractive levels before initiating new positions. For now, the internal diagnostic model advises to monitor but avoid overexposure to OKE.