Stock Analysis | Oneok Outlook - Technical Signals Dampen Fundamentals Amid Mixed Analyst Ratings

Market Snapshot: A Cautious Outlook for Oneok (OKE)

Oneok is currently navigating a volatile market with weak technical signals and diverging analyst views, making it a stock to approach with caution.

News Highlights: Global Oil and Gas Developments

Recent global news suggests a mixed outlook for the energy sector. Here are a few key developments:

• Colombia’s E&P Investment Surge: The country is expected to boost its oil and gas exploration and production investments by 8% in 2025, reaching $4.68 billion. This could indirectly influence energy sector trends, including midstream players like Oneok.
• Brazil’s Environmental Policy Shift: Brazil's environment minister has faced political backlash, with new policies favoring the oil industry. This could signal a broader shift in energy policy that affects global market sentiment.
• Global PE Activity in Fossil Fuels: Private equity exits in fossil fuels are rising, with deal values expected to exceed 2024 levels. This trend may signal increased consolidation or strategic divestments that could impact midstream players like Oneok in the long term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals: A Split Between Expectations and Performance

Analysts are divided in their ratings for Oneok. The simple average rating score is 3.33, while the weighted rating score—factoring in historical performance—is 2.23. This suggests a lack of consensus among analysts, with mixed expectations and a generally bearish tilt.

The current price trend shows a slight rise of 0.26%, while the weighted expectations of analysts are mismatched. This divergence adds uncertainty for investors.

Key fundamental values and their corresponding internal diagnostic scores (0-10) include:

• Revenue-MV: 1.60 (score: 2) — weak momentum
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 95.66% (score: 2) — limited upside potential
• Inventory turnover ratio: 13.72% (score: 2) — moderate efficiency
• Net cash flow from operating activities / Total liabilities: 5.70% (score: 3) — slightly better liquidity
• Profit-MV: 1.31 (score: 1) — weak profitability

Money-Flow Trends: Institutional and Retail Flows Aligned in a Negative Trend

Oneok is experiencing a negative flow across all investor categories. The overall fund-flow score is 7.86 (an internal diagnostic score of “good”), but this does not outweigh the negative directional trend:

• Small investor inflow ratio: 47.91% — declining
• Medium investor inflow ratio: 49.32% — weak
• Large and extra-large investor inflow ratios: 49.69% and 48.62% — both negative

With all investor groups showing a negative trend, it signals a broader lack of confidence in the stock's near-term performance.

Key Technical Signals: A Bearish Setup

Oneok’s technical outlook is not encouraging. The technical score is 3.01 (an internal diagnostic score, 10 being best), and the overall trend is described as “weak.” Here are the key signals:

Internal Diagnostic Scores for Recent Indicators

• WR Overbought: 2.71 (internal diagnostic score) — suggesting the stock is overbought but showing neutral strength
• WR Oversold: 2.62 (internal diagnostic score) — indicating mixed signals
• MACD Golden Cross: 3.70 (internal diagnostic score) — the strongest indicator but still weak overall

Recent Chart Patterns

• August 25: MACD Golden Cross — a bullish signal, but not sustained
• August 28 & 27: WR Overbought — repeated signals of overbought conditions
• August 29: WR Overbought again — reinforcing the idea of a top forming

Trend Quality

Key insights from the technical analysis indicate that the market is in a volatile but directionless phase. The three bearish indicators outweigh any bullish ones, and the recent signal activity is limited, indicating a relatively quiet market.

Conclusion: Consider Avoiding for Now

With weak technical signals, mixed analyst sentiment, and a lack of strong fundamental support, Oneok appears to be in a challenging position. Investors may want to consider avoiding the stock for now and instead monitor upcoming developments, particularly in the energy sector policy landscape and any potential earnings surprises.

For now, the best approach may be to wait for a clearer trend to emerge and more favorable signals before considering any positions in Oneok.