Stock Analysis | Oneok Outlook - A Mixed Bag Amid Diverging Analyst Opinions

Market Snapshot

Oneok (OKE) has seen a modest price rise of 1.52% recently, but the technical indicators paint a bearish picture with no bullish signals and three bearish signals. Our internal diagnostic score for technical strength is 3.01/10, signaling weakness. Analysts remain divided, with a simple average rating of 3.33 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.85, indicating a relatively neutral stance but poor alignment with the upward price movement.

News Highlights

The energy landscape remains active, with recent developments that could indirectly impact Oneok:

• Colombia is projected to boost oil and gas investment by 8% in 2025, signaling optimism in the sector. This could increase global energy demand and potentially benefit U.S. natural gas players like Oneok.
• Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu introduced an executive order to reduce upstream oil and gas costs and attract investment. Such reforms could lead to increased efficiency and production in oil-producing countries, indirectly supporting gas infrastructure operators like Oneok.
• Private equity exits in fossil fuels are rising, with over $18.5 billion in deals so far this year. This trend could influence investor sentiment and capital flows in the energy sector, including midstream companies.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are mixed in their views of Oneok, with three major institutions recently weighing in:

• Morgan Stanley (Robert Kad): Rating: Buy on 2025-08-26. Historical winning rate: 66.7%, but average return is -5.54%.
• RBC Capital (Elvira Scotto): Rating: Neutral on 2025-08-13. Historical winning rate: 66.7%, average return: -1.38%.
• Mizuho (Gabriel Moreen): Rating: Neutral on 2025-08-29. Historical winning rate: 100%, but average return is -2.30%.

The simple average rating is 3.33, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.85, indicating a more cautious stance based on historical returns. These scores are at odds with the current upward price trend, suggesting market expectations are not aligned with the stock’s recent direction.

Key fundamental metrics highlight a mixed bag:

• Revenue-to-Market Value (Revenue-MV): 1.60, internal diagnostic score: 3.01 — moderate strength.
• Net Income-to-Net Profit (%): 95.66%, internal diagnostic score: 3.37 — strong profitability.
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 13.72, internal diagnostic score: 2.71 — average efficiency.
• Net Income-to-Revenue (%): 19.65%, internal diagnostic score: 2.62 — decent but not impressive.
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities / Total Liabilities (%): 5.70%, internal diagnostic score: 3.70 — moderate liquidity.

While the company shows decent profitability and liquidity, operational efficiency and asset management remain weaker, as reflected in the overall fundamental score of 3.89/10.

Money-Flow Trends

Oneok is seeing negative inflow trends across all investor sizes:

• Small-trend: negative, inflow ratio: 47.74%.
• Medium-trend: negative, inflow ratio: 49.49%.
• Large-trend: negative, inflow ratio: 49.72%.
• Extra-large-trend: negative, inflow ratio: 48.92%.

With an overall fund-flow score of 7.89/10, the inflows are still relatively strong by model standards, but the negative directional trend suggests big-money players are cautiously exiting or not adding to positions. Retail investors also seem hesitant, indicating a lack of conviction in the stock’s short-term direction.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Oneok is struggling with three bearish signals in the last five days:

• MACD Golden Cross (score: 3.70 – internal diagnostic score): A classic bullish signal, but it’s not enough to overcome the bearish bias.
• Williams %R Overbought (score: 2.71): Suggesting the stock may be overvalued or overbought.
• Williams %R Oversold (score: 2.62): Indicates possible undervaluation but has not sparked a reversal.

Recent indicators by date include:

• 2025-08-25: MACD Golden Cross – a rare bullish event.
• 2025-08-28: Williams %R Overbought.
• 2025-08-29: Another Williams %R Overbought signal.

Despite the presence of the MACD Golden Cross, the overall technical outlook remains weak. The key insights indicate a volatile and unclear direction with three bearish vs. zero bullish indicators. This imbalance supports the recommendation to avoid the stock for now.

Conclusion

Oneok is in a mixed and volatile state, with bearish technical signals, diverging analyst views, and modest fundamental strength. While the stock has shown a recent rise, the lack of strong bullish indicators and the negative money-flow trends suggest caution. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend or better alignment between fundamentals and market sentiment. For now, a watch-and-wait approach appears prudent.