Stock Analysis | Oneok Outlook - Bearish Technicals and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Oneok (OKE) is under pressure technically with a weak score of 2.96 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10). Analysts are divided, and the stock has fallen 2.95% recently, aligning with bearish signals.

News Highlights

• Colombia's oil and gas E&P investment set to rise 8% in 2025 to $4.68 billion—this regional shift may indirectly affect global energy pricing dynamics and could weigh on OKE if it impacts broader oil prices.
• OPEC+ is reportedly planning a bigger-than-expected 411,000 bpd output increase for July—a move that could depress oil prices further, challenging energy infrastructure firms like Oneok.
• Nigeria’s Tinubu introduces fresh incentives for the oil sector, including cost-cutting measures and tax credits, potentially boosting exploration and production activity, but its effect on OKE remains to be seen.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Recent analyst sentiment for Oneok is mixed:

• Average (simple mean) rating score: 3.33 (on a 5-point scale), indicating a neutral outlook.
• Weighted rating score: 2.23—taking into account performance history of analysts, this lower score suggests less confidence.
• Rating consistency: Dispersed, with one "Buy" and two "Neutral" ratings from three major institutions (Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital, Mizuho).
• Price alignment: The stock has fallen 2.95% recently, and analyst expectations are broadly neutral to bearish, which aligns with the recent price trend.

Key fundamental factors (values only), as of the latest analysis:

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit (%): 95.66% (internal diagnostic score: 0)
• Inventory turnover ratio: 13.72 (score: 3)
• Net income / Revenue (%): 19.65% (score: 2)
• Quick ratio: 45.71% (score: 0)
• Profit-MV: 1.31 (score: 1)
• Total profit / EBIT (%): 69.46% (score: 1)
• Income tax / Total profit (%): 22.84% (score: 1)
• Long-term debt to working capital ratio (%): 7.03% (score: 1)
• Asset-MV: 1.59 (score: 3)
• Inventory turnover days: 13.12 (score: 2)

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is currently withdrawing from Oneok. The overall inflow ratio is 48.96%, and the fund-flow score is 7.83 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), which is considered "good," but the overall trend is negative. This indicates a cautious stance from large institutional and retail investors alike. While retail participation remains moderate, large and extra-large investors are also pulling back slightly, suggesting a general bearish sentiment in the near term.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Oneok is struggling. The internal diagnostic score is 2.96, which is very weak and indicates that the stock should be avoided. Here’s a breakdown of the key signals:

• WR Overbought: Score: 2.56 (internal diagnostic score)—a weak signal indicating overbought conditions but with limited strength.
• WR Oversold: Score: 2.62 (internal diagnostic score)—another weak signal indicating oversold levels with mixed returns historically.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score: 3.7 (internal diagnostic score)—this is the only slightly stronger signal, but it’s still in the lower range and has shown only moderate success (50% win rate, 0.34% average return).

Recent indicators by date (last 5 days):

• August 25: MACD Golden Cross
• August 28: WR Overbought
• August 27: WR Overbought
• August 18: WR Oversold
• August 29: WR Overbought

Overall, the technical momentum is weak with 3 bearish indicators and zero bullish ones. The market is relatively calm but showing a high risk of further decline.

Conclusion

Oneok faces a challenging technical environment and mixed analyst expectations. The internal diagnostic score of 2.96 highlights weak momentum, and with bearish indicators dominating, the stock should be approached with caution. Investors are advised to avoid entering new positions at this time and consider waiting for clearer signs of stabilization or improved technical structure before reassessing the trade.