Stock Analysis | Occidental Petroleum Outlook - A Weak Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Views

Market Snapshot

Headline: Occidental Petroleum’s technical outlook is weak, suggesting caution for investors. The stock is currently trading with a 1.56% price rise, but technical indicators are bearish, with three negative signals versus zero bullish ones.

News Highlights

Recent developments in the oil and gas sector have sparked varied reactions. Colombia is looking to boost its E&P investment by 8% in 2025, aiming for $4.68 billion in spending. This could indirectly benefit Occidental, as global exploration gains momentum. Meanwhile, in Nigeria, President Tinubu has introduced tax incentives to reduce costs and improve returns for upstream operators — a move that could influence OPEC dynamics and energy pricing globally.

On the other hand, a $5.6 billion acquisition in Ohio by EOG Resources from CPP Investments highlights increasing consolidation in the sector. Such shifts may affect market supply dynamics and investor sentiment toward independent producers like OXY.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Three institutions have provided recent ratings for OXY, with all assigning a "Neutral" stance. The simple average rating is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 1.65. These scores suggest a market that’s divided, with a generally cautious outlook.

The analysts’ views are not aligned with the recent price rise, which has climbed by 1.56%. Morgan Stanley and UBS have mixed historical performance, with 50% win rates and negative average returns, while Melius Research has shown no winning predictions. This lack of consensus makes it difficult to gauge the stock’s direction.

On the fundamentals, OXY’s internal diagnostic score is 5.68, indicating moderate strength. Key fundamentals and their values include:

• Revenue-to-Market Value (Revenue-MV): 0.88x – score 2.00
• Net Profit Margin (%): -0.23% – score 0.00
• Price-to-Cash Flow (PCF): 10.85 – score 3.00
• EV/EBIT: 40.35x – score 2.00
• Long-Term Debt to Working Capital (%): 95.93% – score 1.00
• Asset-to-Market Value (Asset-MV): 1.35x – score 3.00
• Inventory Turnover Days: 74.08 days – score 2.00

While some metrics like PCF and Asset-MV show moderate strength, the company’s net profit margin is negative, and its debt position is high. These mixed signals suggest that while OXY is fundamentally intact, its profitability and leverage pose concerns.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows for OXY reveal a split between retail and big-money activity. The overall inflow ratio is 0.4987, which is slightly below 0.5, indicating more outflows than inflows. However, block inflows are positive at 0.5007, suggesting institutional confidence. Retail flows, on the other hand, are negative across all categories, with small, medium, and large flows below 0.5. This divergence indicates that while big investors are cautiously accumulating, retail traders are stepping back — a sign of potential market uncertainty.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, OXY is in a weak position. The internal diagnostic score is 3.54, with three bearish indicators and only two neutral ones. No bullish signals were detected in the past five days.

Key indicators and their internal scores (0-10):

• Williams %R Overbought: 2.54 – weak internal strength
• Williams %R Oversold: 3.29 – slightly stronger but still neutral
• Bearish Engulfing: 2.68 – bearish pattern detected
• MACD Golden Cross: 4.34 – moderate internal strength
• Earnings Release Date: 4.87 – strong signal

On recent dates, WR Overbought was the most frequently seen pattern, appearing on three separate days from August 13 to 15, 2025. Additionally, the MACD Golden Cross and WR Oversold signals were detected earlier in the month (August 5 and 6), suggesting a volatile and indecisive chart.

Technical summary: The stock is in a bearish state with more negative than positive signals. The overall trend is weak, and the momentum is not clearly defined, making it a less attractive target for investors at this time.

Conclusion

Occidental Petroleum is facing a challenging outlook. While there are some positive fundamental metrics and the market remains active in the oil and gas sector, the technical signals are bearish. The internal diagnostic score of 3.54 aligns with this weak technical reading.

Given the current setup, investors might want to consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pull-back before entering or adding to positions. Watching the upcoming earnings release, scheduled for the near future, may offer more clarity and potential catalysts for the stock.