Stock Analysis | Occidental Petroleum Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is showing technical weakness with a score of 2.22 and bearish signals dominating in recent chart patterns. Investors are advised to avoid at this time.

News Highlights

Recent news affecting the energy sector includes developments in oil and gas investment. For example:

• Colombia expects an 8% jump in 2025 investment in oil and gas exploration, reaching $4.68 billion, according to the country's leading industry group.
• Nigeria's President Tinubu introduced a new executive order to lower costs and boost oil and gas operations, including performance-based tax incentives for upstream operators.
• OPEC+ is set to increase oil output beyond the 411,000 barrels per day hike previously agreed, as more countries accelerate production than planned.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The simple average analyst rating for OXY is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.73. Analyst ratings have been consistent, all showing "Neutral" sentiment recently.

Analysts from UBS (historical win rate: 71.4%), Morgan Stanley (50.0%), and Melius Research (100.0%) have contributed to this consensus.

Despite a recent price increase of 0.17%, these neutral expectations do not align well with the upward move, suggesting caution.

Key fundamental factor values include:

• Profit-Market Value (Profit-MV): 66.60% – score: 6.56
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit: 74.59% – score: 6.56
• Price-to-Book (PB): 38.06% – score: 6.56
• Net Income-to-Revenue: -22.49% – score: 6.56
• Inventory Turnover Days: 74.08 – score: 6.56

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is currently moving out of OXY with the block trend being negative, while small investors are showing a positive trend. The overall inflow ratio is 49.49%, indicating a relatively even split between inflows and outflows. Large and extra-large investors are also in a negative trend, suggesting concern among institutional players.

Key Technical Signals

The technical indicators for OXY are leaning bearish with 3 out of 3 indicators showing bearish signals in the last 5 days. Notable patterns include:

• Williams %R Overbought – internal diagnostic score: 3.22 – neutral rise, but with an average return of -0.04% and a 51.61% win rate.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) Overbought – internal diagnostic score: 2.0 – neutral bias, with a poor historical return of -0.7% and a win rate of 41.67%.
• Bullish Engulfing Pattern – internal diagnostic score: 1.44 – biased bearish, with an average return of -0.84% and a win rate of 37.5%.

Recent signals include a Bullish Engulfing on 2025-08-27 and multiple RSI Overbought and Williams %R Overbought signals from 2025-08-26 through 2025-09-02. The overall trend is weak with bearish momentum clearly dominating the technical landscape.

Conclusion

With a weak technical outlook, mixed analyst views, and bearish signals on the charts, it may be wise for investors to consider waiting for a clearer trend or better entry point. Given the recent bearish technical indicators and a fundamental score of 6.56, it’s advisable to monitor OXY closely for potential short-term pullbacks or earnings clarity before making any new investment decisions.