Stock Analysis | Occidental Petroleum Outlook - A Bearish Technical Picture Amid Mixed Fundamentals and Fund Flow Trends

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Despite mixed fundamentals and positive fund flows, the technical outlook for Occidental Petroleum remains weak, with bearish signals dominating and a technical score of just 3.14 (internal diagnostic score). Investors should proceed with caution.

News Highlights

Recent news has highlighted both global and domestic developments in the oil and gas sector that could influence OXY’s long-term prospects:

• Colombia's E&P investment surge is expected to reach $4.68 billion in 2025, signaling renewed global interest in exploration and production. This could indirectly affect OXY’s operations in similar markets.
• President Tinubu’s new executive order in Nigeria aims to cut costs and improve revenues in the upstream sector, potentially encouraging more U.S. exploration and production firms to enter or expand in the region.
• Private equity exits in fossil fuels are expected to surpass 2024 levels, with $18.54 billion in deals announced between January and May. This reflects growing investor interest in the sector, though it doesn’t guarantee favorable returns for OXY.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have provided a relatively neutral stance on OXY in the past 20 days, with a simple average rating of 3.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.73. The ratings are consistent, with all three active analysts assigning a "Neutral" rating. However, this neutrality contrasts with a recent 4.85% price rise, suggesting market sentiment has diverged from analyst expectations.

Key fundamental factors and their model scores (internal diagnostic scores 0-10) include:

• Price-to-Book (PB): 3.39 (value 3.39), score 3 – relatively low but showing some improvement.
• Revenue-to-Market Value (Revenue-MV): 0.028 (value 2.80%), score 2 – weak, signaling possible undervaluation or poor revenue performance.
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 2.43 (value 2.43), score 3 – moderate, indicating reasonable efficiency in managing inventory.
• Net Income-to-Revenue: -0.23 (value -22.71%), score 3 – negative, indicating declining profitability.
• Long-Term Debt to Working Capital Ratio: 95.93 (value 95.93%), score 1 – highly concerning, suggesting heavy reliance on debt relative to available working capital.
• Asset-to-Market Value (Asset-MV): 1.35 (value 1.35), score 5.56 – relatively strong, indicating good balance sheet strength.

Money-Flow Trends

Despite the bearish technical outlook, fund flow data shows positive signs. OXY's overall inflow ratio stands at 49.67%, with inflows seen across all major categories—small, medium, large, and extra-large—except for a negative trend in the medium and small categories. The overall fund flow score is 7.84 (internal diagnostic score), which is considered "good." This suggests that large institutional investors and block traders are showing cautious optimism, though retail sentiment remains weak.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, the outlook is clearly bearish. The technical score for Occidental Petroleum is 3.14 (internal diagnostic score), with 4 bearish indicators, 0 bullish, and 2 neutral signals. The key indicators and their internal scores (0-10) include:

• WR Overbought: 2.64 – weak bearish signal
• Bearish Engulfing: 2.68 – strong bearish signal
• Bullish Engulfing: 1.00 – extremely bearish bias
• MACD Golden Cross: 4.34 – neutral bias
• WR Oversold: 3.28 – moderate bullish
• Earnings Release Date: 4.87 – moderately bullish

Recent chart patterns from the last 5 days include:

• 2025-08-20: Bullish Engulfing – extremely bearish bias
• 2025-08-15 and 2025-08-14: WR Overbought – weak bearish signal
• 2025-08-06: Bearish Engulfing and WR Oversold – mixed signals but bearish dominates
• 2025-08-13: WR Overbought and MACD Golden Cross – mixed signals but bearish trends are stronger

Overall, the technical momentum is weak, with bearish signals clearly dominating the market’s short-term direction.

Conclusion

Investors should consider avoiding OXY in the near term due to the weak technical outlook. While fundamentals and fund flow data show some positive trends, the bearish technical signals—particularly the Bearish Engulfing and WR Overbought patterns—suggest further downside risk. A pull-back or a strong earnings report could provide a better entry point for value-conscious investors. Until then, patience is recommended.