Stock Analysis | Monolithic Power Outlook - Mixed Signals Amidst Strong Buy Momentum

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Monolithic Power (MPWR) is showing a 2.59% price rise recently, but technical indicators warn of a weak trend—internal diagnostic scores suggest caution for potential downside risks.

News Highlights

Recent news points to shifting dynamics in the semiconductor space. A $750 million net outflow from the US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) in May 2025 highlights broader sector concerns. Meanwhile, McKinsey and Japan are exploring strategies to bolster rare earth and semiconductor supply chains, potentially aiding long-term industry stability. Additionally, NVIDIA is being scrutinized in several comparisons against peers, which could indirectly influence MPWR’s market perception.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided, with 9 active institutions and 10 predictions recorded in the past 20 days. The simple average rating is 4.10, while the performance-weighted rating stands at 3.71. These scores suggest relatively neutral to positive sentiment, though not uniformly aligned with the recent 2.59% price increase.

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): 29.13% — internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% — internal diagnostic score: 1.00
• Total profit (YoY growth rate): 53.17% — internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): 26.99% — internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Interest coverage ratio (EBIT / Interest expense): -89.39% — internal diagnostic score: 1.00

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail investors are flowing into MPWR. The fund-flow score is 7.63, indicating a “good” inflow trend. Detailed ratios reveal that:

• Extra-large inflow ratio: 55.13%
• Large inflow ratio: 50.49%
• Medium inflow ratio: 50.81%
• Small inflow ratio: 50.32%

This suggests that both institutional and retail capital is showing positive momentum, reinforcing the price rise in the short term.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook is clearly bearish. Here are the most relevant internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• WR Overbought: 2.04 — Suggests caution, with a 45.65% win rate historically.
• MACD Death Cross: 1.00 — Strong bearish signal, with a 25.00% win rate.
• Marubozu White: 1.00 — Also bearish, with a poor 20.00% win rate.

Recent chart patterns include a MACD Death Cross on 2025-08-21, a Marubozu White on 2025-08-26, and a WR Overbought on 2025-09-05. These all point to weak momentum and a “weak state” in the market for MPWR.

Conclusion

While Monolithic Power is enjoying strong inflows and has received several Strong Buy and Buy ratings from analysts, the technical indicators are a red flag. With 4 bearish signals vs. 0 bullish and an internal technical score of 1.9, the best approach for investors might be to wait for a pull-back or clearer signs of consolidation. Given the divergence between price action and technical momentum, caution is warranted—especially for new buyers. Keep an eye on the fund-flow ratios for further confirmation of broader institutional sentiment.