Stock Analysis | Mondelez Outlook - A Stock in a Weaker Technical State Amid Mixed Analyst and Flow Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Mondelez (MDLZ) is currently in a weaker technical state, with bearish indicators dominating and an internal diagnostic score of 2.17. Investors are advised to avoid for now.

2. News Highlights

Recent news affecting the food sector includes developments in the diabetic food market, where demand for low-sugar, low-carb products is growing, and global trends in food delivery services. A few highlights:

• On May 31, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu announced the acquisition of Deliveroo and SevenRooms, positioning the company as a major consolidator in the food delivery space.
• Reports on the diabetic food market predict a surge to $24.86 billion by 2033, driven by product innovation and consumer health trends.
• BigBasket has launched a 10-minute food delivery service in Bengaluru, with Starbucks and Qmin on board—this could increase competition in the Indian market.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst sentiment is mixed, with most recent ratings leaning toward "Underperform." Here's the breakdown:

• Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 3.86 (out of 5)
• Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 2.14 (out of 5)
• Consistency: Analysts have issued a range of ratings—Neutral, Strong Buy, and Buy—with little agreement. This suggests a divergence in views.
• Price Trend vs. Ratings: The stock has risen 0.95% recently, while the overall ratings are relatively neutral to bearish, indicating a mismatch.

Key fundamental values and their internal diagnostic scores include:

• Net Income-to-Revenue Ratio: -20.28% (internal diagnostic score: 5.47)
• Return on Assets (ROA): 0.91% (internal diagnostic score: 4.03)
• Cash-to-Market Value Ratio: -159.07% (internal diagnostic score: 4.25)
• Net Profit Growth (Parent Shareholders): -48.19% YoY (internal diagnostic score: 3.43)
• Earnings Per Share Growth: -46.67% YoY (internal diagnostic score: 3.12)

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing caution, while smaller retail flows remain positive:

• Overall Fund Flow Score: 7.34 (rated as “good”)
• Big Block Trends: Negative, with an inflow ratio of 41.7%
• Small Retail Trends: Positive, with inflow ratios ranging between 40-50%
• Large and Extra-Large Funds: Mixed, with positive large trends but a negative extra-large trend

This suggests a divergence between institutional and retail investor sentiment, with big money pulling back while smaller investors remain optimistic.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, the stock is under pressure. Here's what the internal diagnostic scores show for key indicators:

• Williams %R Oversold: Internal diagnostic score of 2.43 — suggesting a weaker internal signal
• RSI Oversold: Internal diagnostic score of 1.91 — further indicating bearish pressure

Over the past five days, both the WR Oversold and RSI Oversold indicators have remained active, with the strongest readings appearing on August 11th and 12th. These signals highlight an oversold condition that hasn’t yet translated into meaningful price recovery, and momentum remains weak.

Key insights include:

• Technical indicators show a weak state in the market
• Bearish signals (2) are dominant over bullish ones (0)
• Strong caution is advised due to the high risk of a further decline

6. Conclusion

Mondelez is in a weak technical condition with bearish signals dominating and an internal diagnostic score of just 2.17. Analysts are split, and while retail investors remain cautiously optimistic, big-money flows are pulling back. Given these factors, a cautious approach is warranted.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer breakout or a pullback before entering long positions. Monitor the earnings report and broader market sentiment for potential catalysts.