Stock Analysis | Mondelez Outlook - Navigating Weak Technicals and Strong Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Mondelez (MDLZ.O) is currently trading higher by 3.01% as of the latest update, but its technical indicators are flagging a weak outlook, suggesting investors should proceed with caution. The internal diagnostic score for technicals is just 1.78 (0-10).

News Highlights

Recent news affecting the processed food industry includes:

• India’s Processed Food Exports Surge: India's processed food exports hit $2.13 billion in April 2025, up 15% year-over-year. With eased restrictions on rice exports and strong harvests, this is positive for global food companies like Mondelez.
• DoorDash’s Expansion: DoorDash's CEO has turned the company into a consolidator in food delivery, acquiring Deliveroo and SevenRooms. This signals growing competition in the food delivery space, which could impact Mondelez's retail channels.
• Diabetic Food Market Growth: The diabetic food market is expected to reach $24.86 billion by 2033, driven by rising demand for low-sugar and low-carb options. Mondelez, with its wide portfolio of snack and beverage products, is well-positioned to benefit from this trend.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided in their views, with a simple average rating of 3.67 and a performance-weighted rating of 3.29. This suggests a relatively neutral stance, though with a slight bias toward positive sentiment. However, this contrasts with the recent price rise of 3.01%, indicating that market expectations and price action are generally aligned.

Key Fundamental Values and Model Scores:

• Annualized Return on Equity (ROE): 7.85% with an internal diagnostic score of 8.49. This is a strong indicator of management effectiveness.
• Return on Assets (ROA): 0.91% with an internal diagnostic score of 7.91, signaling moderate asset efficiency.
• Net Profit / Total Operating Revenue: 5.74% with an internal diagnostic score of 7.59, showing reasonable profitability.
• Profit-MV: -1.17 with an internal diagnostic score of 8.49, indicating a compelling valuation based on earnings relative to market value.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing a mixed signal, with an overall fund-flow score of 7.55 (good) and a negative overall trend despite positive inflows from small and medium investors. Large and extra-large institutional investors are showing outflows, with block inflow ratio at 42.47% and extra-large inflow ratio at 41.57%. This divergence suggests retail and mid-cap investors are cautiously optimistic, while larger players are more bearish.

Key Technical Signals

Mondelez’s technical indicators remain largely bearish, with 0 bullish and 4 bearish signals, and a weak overall trend. Here's a breakdown of key signals:

• Williams %R Overbought: Score of 1.31 — a weak signal suggesting overbought conditions.
• RSI Oversold: Score of 1.91 — mixed signal; while typically bullish, its poor historical return of -0.18% reduces its value.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score of 1.34 — another weak signal with a historically poor average return of -0.5%.
• Williams %R Oversold: Score of 2.57 — slightly better but still underperforming with an average return of 0.04%.

Recent Chart Activity:

• On August 19, the stock showed a Williams %R Overbought signal, which is bearish.
• On August 20, a MACD Golden Cross occurred, but it's currently biased bearish.

Key Insight: Technical indicators suggest a weak market with high risk of decline, particularly due to the dominance of bearish signals over bullish ones.

Conclusion

Mondelez’s fundamentals remain strong, with solid returns on equity and assets, and favorable valuation metrics. However, the technical outlook is weak, with multiple bearish signals and a low internal diagnostic score of 1.78. Given the current mix of bearish technicals and neutral analyst sentiment, it may be wise to consider waiting for a pull-back before entering or adding to positions. Watch for follow-up news on market consolidation in the food delivery space and earnings reports for further clarity on Mondelez’s strategic direction.