Stock Analysis | Mondelez Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Weak Technicals and Strong Fundamentals

Mondelez Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Weak Technicals and Strong Fundamentals

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Mondelez is in a rough patch technically, but fundamentals and fund flows show mixed signals.

Shares of Mondelez (MDLZ) have dropped by 1.29% recently, and internal diagnostic scores (0-10) from our technical model show a weak stance, scoring just 1.55. Analysts remain divided, with a simple average rating of 3.67 and a performance-weighted average of 2.56. Meanwhile, fund flows are positive, with a strong 7.73 score from our proprietary model.

2. News Highlights

Recent news around the food delivery and packaged goods sectors has been mixed. Here are a few key takeaways:

• DoorDash's $5.1B Expansion: The company's $5.1 billion in recent acquisitions (Deliveroo and SevenRooms) highlights a broader shift in the food delivery space. While not directly tied to Mondelez, it shows increasing consolidation in the sector.
• Growth in Diabetic and Low-Carb Foods: The global diabetic food market is forecasted to hit $24.86 billion by 2033, driven by low-sugar and low-carb product innovation. Mondelez, with its snack portfolio, is well-positioned to benefit if it continues to adapt its offerings.
• India’s Processed Food Exports Surge: India’s processed food exports hit $2.13 billion in April, a 15% YoY increase. While Mondelez operates globally, this trend reflects strong global demand for processed foods, which could be a tailwind for the company’s international operations.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have been divided in their recent ratings. A 3.67 simple average rating suggests a generally neutral stance, while a performance-weighted average of 2.56 shows a more bearish tilt when considering past performance. The ratings are not in line with the stock’s current price decline.

Looking at fundamentals, Mondelez scored a 5.29 in our proprietary model, indicating decent underlying performance:

• Net profit margin (Net income-Revenue): -20.28% (score: 3.00) – this is a weak indicator for profitability.
• Return on Assets (ROA): 0.91% (score: 2.00) – modest but indicates some asset efficiency.
• Cash flow from operating activities (CFOA): 0.43% (score: 2.00) – a positive sign for liquidity.
• Basic EPS YoY growth: -46.67% (score: 1.00) – a major drag on performance.
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 99.24% (score: 1.00) – shows that almost all profits are retained by the parent company, but does not indicate strong growth.

While some metrics are positive, others suggest a need for caution. The overall fundamental score is moderate, but earnings and profit growth remain concerns.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money has been showing some interest in MDLZ. Our proprietary fund-flow model gives the stock a 7.73 score, which is considered "good" in our internal metrics. Here’s the breakdown:

• Overall inflow ratio: 48.84% – suggesting that more money is flowing into the stock than out.
• Large and extra-large investors: The inflow ratio for these groups is around 50%, showing some confidence from big players.
• Retail (small) investors: Also showed inflows, with a ratio of 50.95% – an encouraging sign for retail participation.

However, the overall trend is still negative, which suggests that while money is flowing in, it’s not enough to reverse the price trend. This could indicate that institutional investors are cautious despite the inflows.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, Mondelez is in a weak position. The internal diagnostic score for the technical model is just 1.55, with 3 bearish and 0 bullish signals in the past 5 days. Here's a breakdown of the key indicators:

• WR Oversold: 2.57 score – slightly positive but not strong enough to turn the trend.
• WR Overbought: 1.07 score – bearish in nature, indicating overvaluation.
• MACD Golden Cross: 1.00 score – another bearish signal that suggests a potential reversal.

Recent chart patterns include multiple conflicting signals, with overbought and oversold levels fluctuating within a short period. The key insight is that the market is relatively calm, but bearish signals are clearly dominant.

6. Conclusion

Mondelez finds itself in a tricky position: fundamentals are moderate, but technicals are weak. With a 7.73 fund-flow score and 5.29 fundamentals, the company still holds some upside potential — but bearish technical signals suggest caution. Our advice is to wait for a clearer trend before making any decisions. Investors should monitor the coming quarters for any meaningful earnings or product announcements that could turn the tide.