Stock Analysis | Moderna Outlook - A Bearish Technical Picture Amid Strong Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Moderna is underperforming technically but shows solid fundamentals. The stock has dropped -12.67% recently, with bearish indicators dominating and a weak technical outlook scoring just 2.15 (internal diagnostic score).

News Highlights

• U.S. changes in Covid-19 vaccine policy may impact Moderna's market. Recent changes in vaccine approval and target groups could affect demand for Moderna's products, though the full impact remains to be seen.
• Genentech's Itovebi success in breast cancer treatment highlights competitive drug developments in biotech. While not directly affecting Moderna, it underscores the importance of therapeutic innovation in the sector.
• ETFGI reports record ETF assets in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan). This may indirectly support investor interest in biotech and pharmaceutical ETFs, where Moderna is often included.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The simple average rating score is 2.50, while the weighted rating score is 2.31, reflecting a neutral to bearish consensus among analysts. Both scores align with the current price decline of -12.67%, indicating consistency in market expectations.

Key Fundamental Factors

• Revenue-MV: 0.18% – Score: 1 (internal diagnostic score)
• PCF: 2.87% – Score: 3 (internal diagnostic score)
• Total Operating Revenue YoY: -100.82% – Score: 1 (internal diagnostic score)
• PS: 1.81% – Score: 3 (internal diagnostic score)
• Gross Profit Margin: 16.40% – Score: 2 (internal diagnostic score)
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 2.33% – Score: 3 (internal diagnostic score)
• PE: -0.13% – Score: 1 (internal diagnostic score)
• Income Tax / Total Profit: 0.80% – Score: 1 (internal diagnostic score)
• Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio: 0.29% – Score: 2 (internal diagnostic score)
• NPM: -0.76% – Score: 0 (internal diagnostic score)

Overall, Moderna's fundamentals are strong, but its revenue growth is a concern, with a YoY drop of -100.82%.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is flowing out of Moderna, with all size categories showing negative trends. The overall inflow ratio is just 48.48%, indicating weak institutional and retail confidence.

• Small Inflow Ratio: 48.71%
• Medium Inflow Ratio: 48.79%
• Large Inflow Ratio: 49.32%
• Extra-Large Inflow Ratio: 48.23%

With a fund flow score of 7.63 (internal diagnostic score), it's clear that the broader market is cautious about the stock despite its solid fundamental performance.

Key Technical Signals

Moderna's technical indicators show a clear bearish bias, with no bullish signals and three bearish indicators. The stock's technical score is 2.15 (internal diagnostic score), signaling weak technical momentum.

Indicator Details

• WR Overbought – Score: 1 (internal diagnostic score) – Bearish bias with historical returns of -2.31%.
• WR Oversold – Score: 2.66 (internal diagnostic score) – Neutral bias but with poor win rate of 47.87%.
• Marubozu White – Score: 2.8 (internal diagnostic score) – Bearish signal with average returns of -2.94%.

Recent Indicators By Date

• 20250822 – Marubozu White
• 20250826 – WR Oversold
• 20250825 – WR Oversold
• 20250827 – WR Oversold
• 20250818 – WR Overbought

The recent pattern of signals suggests a lack of clarity in the market, with the stock oscillating between bearish and weakly bullish signals.

Conclusion

Moderna faces a challenging near-term outlook, with a weak technical picture and bearish momentum. Although fundamentals remain strong, the market is showing caution, as reflected in the poor inflow and bearish indicators. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer breakout or a pullback before entering new positions.