Stock Analysis | Lyondellbasell Industries Outlook - A Weak Technical Outlook Amid Mixed Analyst Ratings and Stronger Fund Flows

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: While recent money flow shows strong inflow and a positive overall trend, the technical outlook is weak with bearish signals dominating, and analyst ratings are mixed.

News Highlights

1. U.S. curbs on chemical shipments to China are raising concerns over supply chain disruptions. This could indirectly impact LyondellBasell as a major player in the chemical sector. The move aims to limit China’s access to key chemical products.

2. Deloitte's report on U.S. Energy & Chemicals industry forecasts a 4.1% growth in the workforce by 2033, emphasizing the need for upskilling. This points to long-term optimism for the industry, which could benefit companies like LyondellBasell in the next decade.

3. ETFGI reports that assets in Asia-Pacific ETFs hit a record $1.25 trillion, showing strong investor interest in the region. Although not directly tied to LYB, it reflects positive market sentiment that could support equity flows.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The average rating score from analysts is 2.83, while the weighted rating score is 2.09. These scores are derived from a mix of recent analyst actions, and the overall dispersion in ratings means that there is no clear consensus on LYB's direction. For example:

• Underperform ratings include JPMorgan and RBC Capital with historical win rates of 33.3% and 28.6%, respectively.
• Strong Sell from UBS, which has a historical win rate of 50.0%.
• Neutral or Buy ratings from Citigroup, BMO Capital, and Wells Fargo, showing a more bullish stance despite the mixed outlook.

Current price trends are upward, gaining 6.93%, but the analyst ratings are neutral to bearish, indicating a mismatch between sentiment and performance.

Key fundamental factors include:

• Current ratio: 1.78 – indicates reasonable short-term liquidity.
• Price-to-Cash Flow (PCF): 67.18 – suggests the stock is trading at a high multiple relative to operating cash flow.
• Price-to-Earnings (PE): 205.04 – extremely high, implying the market is paying a premium for earnings, which could be a red flag.
• Cash-MV: -0.26 – a negative score, suggesting the company’s cash is less than expected relative to market value.
• CFOA: 0.01 – low operating cash flow relative to market expectations.
• Total profit / EBIT: 61.93% – shows high profitability relative to earnings before interest and taxes.
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate %): -118.67% – a significant drop in cash flow per share, raising concerns about operational performance.

Each of these factors has an internal diagnostic score (0-10) ranging from 0 to 3.6, suggesting a generally weak fundamental outlook with limited positive momentum.

Money-Flow Trends

Despite the weak technical and fundamental signals, money-flow patterns indicate strong inflows. The overall inflow ratio is 0.5036, with 8.04 as the internal diagnostic score (0-10), placing this stock in the "excellent" category. Large and extra-large investors are particularly active, with inflow ratios of 0.5154 and 0.5061, respectively. Retail investors (small investors) are also showing a positive trend with an inflow ratio of 0.5031. This suggests that despite the short-term bearish technical signals, big money is still backing the stock, possibly viewing the weakness as a buying opportunity.

Key Technical Signals

The technical analysis is bleak, with 3 bearish indicators and 0 bullish ones. The internal diagnostic score (0-10) for the technical outlook is just 1.44, meaning the stock is in a weak technical condition.

• WR Overbought: This indicator has an internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 2.32, suggesting limited strength in the bullish momentum.
• Ex-Dividend Date: With a score of 1.00, this is a weak signal, typically associated with price declines.
• Dividend Record Date: Also rated 1.00, it similarly indicates bearish tendencies.

In the last five trading days, the WR Overbought indicator was active daily, while the Ex-Dividend and Dividend Record Dates were both triggered on 2025-08-25. This suggests a concentration of bearish signals at the end of the week, potentially influencing the downward pressure on the stock.

From a trend perspective, the key insights are clear: bearish signals dominate with no support from the bullish side. Investors should be cautious and consider avoiding the stock at this time due to the weak technical outlook.

Conclusion

While money flow and analyst ratings show some support for LyondellBasell Industries, the technical outlook is weak, and the fundamental picture is mixed. With a technical score of 1.44 and three bearish signals, the risk of a price pullback is high. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a clearer signal of strength before entering this stock. For now, watch for follow-up analyst reports and earnings updates to gauge if the recent bearish trend is temporary or a sign of deeper weakness.