Stock Analysis | Lyondellbasell Industries Outlook - Technicals Signal Weakness, While Fundamentals Remain Mixed

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Despite a recent price rise of 8.62%, technical indicators point to a weak trend, suggesting caution for investors. Our internal diagnostic score for technicals is just 1.65 out of 10.

News Highlights

Recent news impacting the sector includes:

• Safex Chemicals Expands Manufacturing Footprint: A new facility in India aims to boost production and supply chain resilience in the crop protection space. While this doesn’t directly impact LyondellBasell, it signals industry growth in chemical manufacturing.
• US-China Trade Restrictions: New restrictions on shipments of chemicals and chip-design software to China could impact global chemical demand, posing a potential risk to LyondellBasell’s international exposure.
• ETFGI Reports Record ETF Assets in Asia Pacific: Growing investor interest in ETFs suggests a broader appetite for diversified, low-cost investments, which could affect capital flows into energy and chemical equities like LYB.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape for LyondellBasell is mixed. The simple average rating across six institutions is 2.83, while the performance-weighted rating is slightly lower at 2.23. This indicates a relatively neutral stance, though there's some dispersion in views, with one "Strong Sell," four "Neutral," and one "Buy" recommendation in the past 20 days.

Notably, Citigroup’s Patrick Cunningham has a strong historical record (66.7% win rate), and UBS’s Joshua Spector has a good track record (50.0% win rate), both of whom have given "Neutral" ratings recently.

On the fundamental side, key factors include:

• PE Ratio: 205.04 (internal diagnostic score: 0.00)
• Cash Flow from Operating Activities (CFOA): 0.01 (score: 0.02)
• Revenue-Market Value (Revenue-MV): 1.31 (score: 3.00)
• Current Ratio: 177.39% (score: 3.00)
• Quick Ratio: 104.23% (score: 1.00)
• Cash to Market Value (Cash-MV): -26.44% (score: 2.00)

These values suggest a company with strong liquidity (Current and Quick ratios) but a high price-to-earnings ratio and weak cash flow growth. The overall fundamental score is 4.12, signaling moderate strength but with key weaknesses in operating performance.

Money-Flow Trends

Recent money-flow analysis reveals a negative overall trend, with only Small investors showing a positive inflow (50.08%). Institutional and large-cap investors are more cautious:

• Large Inflow Ratio: 50.51%
• Extra-Large Inflow Ratio: 48.75%
• Block Inflow Ratio: 49.25%

With an overall fund-flow score of 7.92 (rated "good"), the data suggests that while big-money investors are cautiously optimistic, the broader market sentiment remains bearish. This divergence between institutional and retail activity is worth watching.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators for LYB are overwhelmingly bearish. The stock currently has four negative indicators and zero bullish ones, leading to a very weak trend. Here are the recent technical signals:

• Williams %R Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 1.20 — suggests caution as overbought conditions can reverse quickly.
• Williams %R Oversold: Score of 1.00 — historically, this has led to poor returns (avg. -0.59%) and a 38.64% win rate.
• RSI Oversold: Score of 1.00 — also bearish, with a win rate of just 30.43%.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score of 3.38 — the only neutral-biased indicator recently, though still not bullish enough to counter the negatives.

Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days):

• 2025-08-18: Williams %R Overbought, MACD Golden Cross — mixed signals.
• 2025-08-15: Williams %R Overbought — overbought conditions persist.
• 2025-08-12: Williams %R Oversold — a bearish reversal.

The technical outlook is clear: weak momentum and poor trend quality. With a score of just 1.65, it’s strongly advised to avoid entering new positions.

Conclusion

LyondellBasell Industries is currently in a precarious position. While fundamentals suggest some liquidity strength, the technical side is extremely weak, with multiple bearish indicators in play. Analysts are divided, and the price action (up 8.62% recently) appears to be at odds with the overall sentiment.

Actionable Takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or a clearer technical confirmation before engaging. For now, the signals suggest caution and a watchful stance — especially given the high number of bearish indicators and weak internal diagnostic scores.