Stock Analysis | Lyondellbasell Industries Outlook - Technical Weakness Overshadows Mixed Analyst and Fund Flows

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Lyondellbasell Industries (LYB.N) shows a recent price rise of 6.42%, but technical indicators and bearish calendar events suggest caution with an internal diagnostic score of just 1.46.

News Highlights

Recent headlines include developments in the chemicals and energy sectors, with Safex Chemicals announcing a new manufacturing facility in India and TotalEnergies advancing a large-scale solar project with RGE in Indonesia. These developments could hint at industry-wide tailwinds, but they may not directly affect LYB's performance in the short term. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. export curbs to China and changes to U.S. visa policies, could have indirect ripple effects on global supply chains and multinational chemical firms like LYB.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst sentiment is mixed: the simple average rating is 2.83, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.09. This indicates a generally neutral to bearish outlook among analysts, with no strong consensus. For example:

• Citigroup analyst Patrick Cunningham (66.7% historical win rate) recently gave a "Neutral" rating.
• UBS's Joshua Spector (50.0% win rate) issued a "Strong Sell" rating.
• Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison (42.9% win rate) gave a "Buy" rating.

These ratings are somewhat at odds with LYB’s recent 6.42% price rise, suggesting mixed signals between analyst sentiment and price action.

On the fundamentals, LYB is mixed but leans neutral. Key internal diagnostic scores include:

• Return on Assets (ROA): 0.33% (score: 2.00)
• Return on Equity (ROE): 0.96% (score: 1.00)
• Operating Cash Flow (CFOA): 0.99% (score: 3.00)
• Profit Margin to Market Value (Profit-MV): -63.74% (score: 2.00)
• Cash Flow to Market Value (Cash-MV): -26.33% (score: 3.00)
• Operating Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 10.28% (score: 1.00)
• Net Assets per Share Growth: -3.77% (score: 1.00)
• Total Operating Revenue Growth (YoY): -9.70% (score: 1.00)

The internal diagnostic score overall is 3.32, suggesting a neutral outlook, but with some weak fundamentals in areas like profit margins and asset returns.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows are showing a positive trend, with inflows across all major categories:

• Small investors: 50.46% inflow ratio (positive trend)
• Medium investors: 49.35% inflow ratio (negative trend)
• Large investors: 51.42% inflow ratio (positive trend)
• Extra-large investors (block money): 51.63% inflow ratio (positive trend)

With an overall fund-flow score of 7.96, big money appears to be in favor of LYB. This contrasts with the technical signals and weak fundamental readings, highlighting a divergence between short-term money flow and technical trends.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, LYB is showing weakness. The internal diagnostic score for technicals is 1.46, with 3 bearish indicators and 0 bullish ones. Notable signals include:

• Williams %R Overbought: Score: 2.37 – A neutral-to-bullish indicator but historically only successful 45.71% of the time with an average return of 3.00%.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Score: 1.00 – A bearish event with an average return of -1.47% and win rate of 33.33%.
• Dividend Record Date: Score: 1.00 – Another bearish event, with identical performance to Ex-Dividend Date.

On August 25, 2025, three indicators were active: WR Overbought, Ex-Dividend, and Dividend Record Date. This suggests a convergence of bearish and mixed signals, with the calendar-driven events likely weighing on near-term price action.

Conclusion

Despite a 6.42% recent price rise and positive fund-flow activity, LYB's technical indicators are weak, and the fundamentals are mixed. The internal diagnostic scores paint a picture of caution: technicals (1.46), fundamentals (3.32), and analyst ratings (2.83 simple average) are all below average. With 3 bearish indicators and no bullish ones, LYB appears to be in a vulnerable position.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider avoiding or hedging exposure to LYB in the short term. Watch for a pull-back and look for more balanced technical and fundamental signals before considering entry.