Stock Analysis | Lyondellbasell Industries Outlook - A Mixed Picture Amid Technical Weakness and Strong Fund Flows

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Lyondellbasell Industries (LYB) is showing a recent price rise of 6.42%, but technical indicators suggest caution with a weak trend overall.

News Highlights

• Lyondellbasell's industry peers expand manufacturing: Safex Chemicals recently announced a new production facility in India that is expected to boost capacity and create 300 jobs. This could indirectly support demand for chemical inputs like LYB's products in agriculture and industrial sectors.
• US policy shifts affecting chemicals and tech exports: New export restrictions from the US targeting China could indirectly affect LYB, as the company supplies materials to global semiconductor and chemical manufacturers. The policy changes might create uncertainty for supply chains in the near term.
• ETF growth in Asia Pacific: ETFGI reported that assets in the ETF industry across Asia (excluding Japan) reached a new record of $1.25 trillion. While this doesn't directly affect LYB, it highlights growing investor interest in diversified chemical and energy plays.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 2.83

Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 2.09

Rating Consistency: Analysts are broadly neutral to mixed, with 4 "Neutral" ratings, 1 "Buy", and 1 "Strong Sell". This suggests a lack of consensus on the company’s near-term direction.

Analysts' mixed views don’t align with LYB's recent 6.42% price rise. However, the weak technical score of 1.46 (an internal diagnostic score, 0-10) suggests caution. The price may not be fully supported by fundamentals or technical momentum.

Key Fundamentals (Values and Model Scores):

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY Growth Rate %): -118.67% (score: 0) - A significant decline in operating cash flow per share is concerning.
• PE Ratio: 205.04 (score: 0) - A very high P/E indicates the stock is overvalued relative to earnings.
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY Growth Rate %): -118.48% (score: 1) - Operating cash flow is sharply down year-over-year.
• Total Profit / EBIT (%): 61.93% (score: 1) - Suggests the company is earning a decent profit margin, but not exceptional.
• Cash-UP: 24.13% (score: 1) - Cash reserves relative to market value are low.
• CFOA (Cash Flow from Operating Activities): 0.99% (score: 2) - Operating cash flow is slightly positive.
• Cost of Sales Ratio (%): 91.29% (score: 0) - A high cost of sales indicates poor efficiency.
• Total Assets Turnover Ratio: 43.14% (score: 3) - Assets are generating reasonable revenue.
• Current Ratio: 1.77 (score: 3) - The company has enough current assets to cover its liabilities, but not significantly more.
• Cash-MV: -26.31% (score: 2) - The company’s cash is less than its market value, indicating potential overvaluation or undercapitalization.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is showing a positive trend in LYB, with large and extra-large fund inflow ratios at 51.42% and 51.63% respectively. Small fund inflow is also positive at 50.46%, indicating broad participation. The overall inflow ratio is 50.94%, pointing to a net inflow of funds across all sizes.

While retail investors are showing positive inflow, the broader market is still cautious due to mixed analyst ratings and weak technical indicators. This suggests that institutional investors are more confident in LYB’s medium-term prospects than average traders.

Key Technical Signals

The technical score for LYB is 1.46 (an internal diagnostic score, 0-10), indicating a weak technical outlook and suggesting investors should avoid the stock in the short term. Bearish indicators are dominant, with 3 bearish vs. 0 bullish signals.

Recent Technical Indicators:

• Williams %R Overbought: Score: 2.37 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) - This suggests the stock is in overbought territory, increasing the risk of a pullback. Historical signals suggest a 45.71% win rate and an average return of 3.00% when this indicator is active.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Score: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) - A bearish event with a historical win rate of 33.33% and an average return of -1.47%.
• Dividend Record Date: Score: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) - Also bearish, with the same historical performance as the ex-dividend date.

Recent Indicators by Date:

• 2025-08-25: Williams %R Overbought, Ex-Dividend Date, and Dividend Record Date all active — a mix of neutral and bearish signals.
• 2025-08-22 to 2025-08-20: Williams %R Overbought active for five consecutive days — signaling overbought conditions.

Key Insights: The stock is in a weak technical phase, with bearish momentum likely to persist. Investors should be cautious and watch for signs of a reversal before entering long positions.

Conclusion

While Lyondellbasell Industries has shown a strong price rise recently, the fundamentals and technicals are mixed. The strong money flow is a positive sign, but the lack of analyst consensus and weak technical indicators suggest caution. Investors may want to wait for a pullback or a clearer technical setup before entering the stock, particularly given the weak internal diagnostic score of 1.46 and the dominance of bearish signals in the near term.