Stock Analysis | Lyondellbasell Industries Outlook - A Divergent Technical and Fundamental Landscape

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Despite a recent price drop of -6.28%, Lyondellbasell Industries (LYB) shows a mixed landscape: bearish technical signals clash with generally stable fundamentals and positive money flow trends.

News Highlights

Recent global developments are unlikely to directly affect LYB, but investors should monitor broader market sentiment:

• U.S. vaccine policy shifts could indirectly influence commodity prices and global economic activity, which are relevant for LYB’s materials and energy sectors.
• Trump’s fast-tracking of a Utah uranium mine highlights ongoing energy policy shifts, which could indirectly impact chemical demand in the long run.
• REX Shares plans Ethereum and Solana ETFs reflect a growing interest in crypto assets—while not directly tied to LYB, it underscores broader speculative market trends.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts show moderate caution with a simple average rating of 2.83 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.09. The ratings are not aligned, ranging from “Strong Sell” to “Buy” with four out of six ratings being “Neutral.” This suggests a lack of consensus among analysts.

Comparing these views with the recent 6.28% price decline, the bearish trend appears to be in line with the overall sentiment.

Key Fundamental Values

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): -118.67% — internal diagnostic score: 0
• Total operating revenue (YoY growth rate): -9.70% — internal diagnostic score: 0
• Quick ratio: 104.23% — internal diagnostic score: 1
• Total profit / EBIT: 61.93% — internal diagnostic score: 1
• Cash-UP: 24.13% — internal diagnostic score: 1
• Current ratio: 177.39% — internal diagnostic score: 3
• Cost of sales ratio: 91.29% — internal diagnostic score: 4
• Equity multiplier: 291.73% — internal diagnostic score: 4
• Cash-MV: -26.31% — internal diagnostic score: 3

Overall, fundamentals remain mixed, with some liquidity measures showing strength and others, particularly revenue and cash flow, showing signs of stress.

Money-Flow Trends

Money is currently flowing into LYB in a surprising fashion. While the overall inflow ratio is 50.54%, the block trading (large and extra-large) inflow ratio stands at 50.79%, indicating institutional or large-capacity investor interest.

Interestingly, small retail inflows are also above average at 50.38%, suggesting that both retail and institutional investors are showing positive sentiment despite the technical red flags.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators are heavily bearish with 0 bullish and 5 bearish signals, leading to a very low internal diagnostic technical score of 1.27. Below are the key signals:

• Williams %R Overbought — internal diagnostic score: 2.15 — neutral bias, but with a 44.44% win rate and an average return of -3.00%.
• Williams %R Oversold — internal diagnostic score: 1.21 — neutral bias, but with a 40.0% win rate and an average return of -57.00%.
• Ex-Dividend Date — internal diagnostic score: 1.00 — bearish, with a 25.0% win rate and average return of -16.10%.
• Dividend Payable Date — internal diagnostic score: 1.00 — bearish, with a 33.3% win rate and average return of -15.00%.
• Dividend Record Date — internal diagnostic score: 1.00 — bearish, with a 25.0% win rate and average return of -16.10%.

Recent chart patterns have also been bearish: notable are WR Overbought and WR Oversold signals from early September, as well as a cluster of dividend-related signals in late August.

Conclusion

Lyondellbasell Industries (LYB) is in a divergent position: fundamentals and money flows suggest some level of support, while technical indicators are largely bearish. Given the current situation, investors may want to consider holding off on new positions and monitor key support levels before committing capital. A pull-back on the technical front could offer a better entry point if fundamentals remain stable and money flow continues to be positive.