Stock Analysis | Lyondellbasell Industries Outlook - A Bearish Trend Amid Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Lyondellbasell Industries (LYB) is currently underperforming with a recent price drop of -2.06%, and technical signals show a weak trend suggesting to avoid the stock. However, cash flow and inflow patterns are trending positively.

News Highlights

While recent headlines include developments in chemical manufacturing and U.S. policy changes, none directly involve Lyondellbasell Industries. However, global trade restrictions affecting chemicals and the latest ETF growth in Asia Pacific could indirectly influence the company's supply chain and market exposure.

• May 31, 2025 - ETFGI reports a record $1.25 trillion in ETF assets in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan). This growth in financial markets may reflect improved investor confidence, which could have a positive ripple effect on industrial companies like LYB.
• May 31, 2025 - Genentech reports positive results for a new breast cancer therapy. While not directly related, positive medical news may improve overall market sentiment.
• May 30, 2025 - TotalEnergies and RGE reach a milestone in a large-scale solar project. Renewable energy developments often correlate with broader chemical and materials demand, which could benefit LYB in the long term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have issued a mixed outlook for LYB. The simple average rating is 2.83 and the performance-weighted rating is 2.09, reflecting low confidence in the stock. Rating dispersion is wide, with four "Neutral" ratings, one "Buy," and one "Strong Sell."

The current price trend of -2.06% aligns with the weighted expectations of market participants, indicating a bearish consensus. Below are key fundamental values and their model scores:

• Quick Ratio: 1.04 (internal diagnostic score 1) – shows modest short-term liquidity.
• Current Ratio: 1.77 (internal diagnostic score 2) – indicates moderate liquidity.
• Cost of Sales Ratio: 91.29% (internal diagnostic score 0) – suggests very high production costs.
• Cash-UP: 24.13% (internal diagnostic score 1) – implies limited cash cushion.
• Cash-MV: -26.31% (internal diagnostic score 3) – indicates cash is significantly below market value.
• Current Assets Turnover Ratio: 1.31 (internal diagnostic score 2) – shows moderate efficiency in using current assets.
• Equity Multiplier: 2.92 (internal diagnostic score 1) – suggests high leverage.
• Total Profit / EBIT Ratio: 61.93% (internal diagnostic score 1) – highlights strong net income relative to earnings before interest and taxes.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors appear to be taking a cautiously optimistic stance. The overall inflow ratio is 50.61%, with positive trends observed across all major fund sizes (small, medium, large, and extra-large). Large institutional flows, at 51.01%, show the most positive movement compared to retail activity.

The positive inflow trend contrasts with the recent price decline, suggesting that some investors are buying the dip or viewing LYB as undervalued amid short-term weakness. This divergence could signal a potential turning point or continued volatility.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Lyondellbasell Industries is under pressure. The overall technical score is a weak 1.29, indicating a bearish trend. Here's a breakdown of the key signals:

• Williams %R Overbought: internal diagnostic score 2.15 – a neutral signal but with a poor historical win rate of 44.44%.
• Ex-Dividend Date: internal diagnostic score 1 – bearish with a win rate of just 25% and an average return of -1.61%.
• Dividend Payable Date: internal diagnostic score 1 – also bearish with a win rate of 33.33% and an average return of -1.50%.
• Dividend Record Date: internal diagnostic score 1 – bearish, with the same poor performance as the other dividend-related signals.

In the last five days, the most significant chart activity occurred on August 25, 2025, with three signals (Williams %R Overbought, Ex-Dividend Date, and Dividend Record Date) appearing. The bearish sentiment is reinforced by the fact that there are 4 bearish indicators versus 0 bullish ones in this period.

Key Insight: The technical side is weak, and it is suggested to avoid the stock. The market appears to be signaling a high risk of further decline, especially with multiple negative signals clustered around dividend dates.

Conclusion

Lyondellbasell Industries is currently navigating a bearish technical landscape, with strong bearish signals and poor historical performance in recent indicators. While cash flows and institutional sentiment suggest some positive undercurrents, the fundamentals and analyst ratings are largely neutral to negative.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a potential pullback or clearer signs of technical improvement before taking a position. Investors should also monitor upcoming earnings and any news on commodity prices or regulatory developments in the chemical sector for a more comprehensive outlook.