Stock Analysis | Jabil Outlook - Technical Weakness Overshadows Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Jabil's stock faces a challenging technical outlook, with three bearish indicators and no bullish ones over the last five days. The overall trend is weak, and the stock is advised to be avoided.

News Highlights

Recent Developments:

• Texas Instruments Expansion: Texas Instruments, a relevant industry player, is expanding its semiconductor manufacturing in Sherman with a $30B investment. While not directly tied to Jabil, such industry growth can indirectly impact supply chain players like Jabil.
• Collaboration with NVIDIA: Texas Instruments announced a partnership with NVIDIA to enhance power management in AI data centers. This could signal broader industry demand for manufacturing and design services, which may eventually benefit Jabil as an electronics manufacturing services provider.
• Dividend-Related Pressures: Jabil is currently navigating ex-dividend and record dates, which historically correlate with price declines. This may weigh on investor sentiment in the short term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: 4.50 (simple mean)

Weighted Rating Score: 3.94 (performance-weighted)

Rating Consistency: Analysts are not aligned—there are differing views, with one "Strong Buy" and one "Buy" in the past 20 days.

The average rating is slightly positive, but the weighted score, which accounts for historical accuracy, is more bearish. This divergence indicates caution—while some analysts remain optimistic, the market has seen a price drop of 5.02% recently.

Key Fundamentals and Scores:

• Price-to-Sales (PS): 5.81 – Internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Cash-UP: 0.06 – Internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Annualized ROE: 28.05% – Internal diagnostic score: 1.00
• Total Profit YoY Growth: -75.10% – Internal diagnostic score: 0.00
• Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.31 – Internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Cash-MV: -0.72 – Internal diagnostic score: 3.00

Jabil’s fundamentals are mixed—while cash flow and interest coverage look stable, earnings and profit growth have deteriorated sharply. This mismatch between strong balance sheet factors and weak profitability is a red flag.

Money-Flow Trends

Jabil is experiencing an overall outflow, with negative trends across all investor categories: small, medium, large, and extra-large institutional funds. The fund-flow score is 7.72 (internal diagnostic score), indicating a "good" flow pattern—but that appears to contradict the technical and price action signals. The overall inflow ratio is 45.30%, but this is split evenly across all sizes of investors. This suggests a lack of conviction from big money, which is a warning sign in a weak price environment.

Key Technical Signals

Jabil’s technical outlook is heavily bearish. Three signals are currently active, all with negative implications:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 1.13 – Historically, this indicator has averaged a -0.55% return with a 39.39% win rate. It was seen on August 15, 18, 19, and 20, and again on August 21.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – Historical returns on this event are negative (-2.27%) with a 0% win rate. It was active on August 15.
• Dividend Record Date: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – Similar to the ex-dividend date, it has historically yielded -2.27% with a 0% win rate and was active on August 15.

Technical Score: 1.04 (internal diagnostic score)

Key Insights: The technical indicators suggest a weak market state, with no bullish momentum and increasing risk of further declines. Investors are advised to avoid entry at this time due to the bearish dominance (3 bearish vs. 0 bullish indicators).

Conclusion

Jabil appears to be in a tough spot, with weak technical signals, declining price action, and a mismatch between analyst optimism and real market performance. While fundamental metrics like cash flow and interest coverage look stable, earnings and profit trends are deteriorating. Given the strong bearish technical profile and negative money flows, it may be wise to avoid new positions in Jabil and consider waiting for a clearer reversal signal before entering the stock.