Stock Analysis | Jabil Outlook - Mixed Technical Signals and Diverging Analyst Ratings

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Jabil (JBL) is showing a modest price rise of 0.12%, but technical indicators are weak, and analysts are divided. The stock has a “Strong Buy” and one “Buy” rating recently, but internal diagnostic scores suggest caution.

News Highlights

Jabil hasn’t had significant news in the last 30 days affecting its stock. However, recent news about Texas Instruments (TXN), a major player in manufacturing and industrial sectors, could indirectly impact Jabil. For example:

• May 30 - Texas Instruments Mixed-Use Project in Sherman: Texas Instruments announced a $30 billion expansion in Sherman, which could boost demand for manufacturing partners like Jabil in the long run.
• May 28 - Market Dipped, But TXN Gained: Texas Instruments rose 0.5% despite the broader market downturn. A stronger industrial and tech sector could indirectly benefit Jabil.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Jabil has two recent analyst ratings: a Strong Buy from Stifel and a Buy from JPMorgan. The simple average rating score is 4.50, and the performance-weighted rating score is 3.40. However, there’s low consistency between the two ratings.

Current price is rising slightly, but analyst expectations are not strongly aligned with the current trend, as technical indicators suggest caution.

Key Fundamental Factors

• Price-to-Sales (PS): 5.81 (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• EV/EBIT: 129.31 (score: 1.00)
• Return on Equity (ROE): 15.98% (score: 1.00)
• Annualized ROE: 28.05% (score: 2.00)
• Shareholders’ Equity / Total Liabilities: 8.47% (score: 1.00)
• Equity Multiplier: 12.81 (score: 1.00)
• YOY Total Profit Growth: -75.10% (score: 1.00)
• Cash-UP: 6.32% (score: 3.00)
• Cash-MV: -7.19% (score: 3.00)

The fundamental score is 7.4, which is moderate, indicating solid cash positions but weaker earnings growth.

Money-Flow Trends

Big institutional money is flowing out, as all money-flow trends (Extra-large, Large, Medium, and Small) are negative. The overall inflow ratio is 45.12%, which is low. Retail traders are also seeing outflows, with a Small inflow ratio of 48.22%.

This suggests that both institutional and retail investors are cautious. The fund-flow score is 7.67, which is labeled “good”, but the negative trends contradict that, indicating a potential divergence in investor sentiment.

Key Technical Signals

Jabil's technical outlook is weak, with a technical score of 3.19, and a recommendation to “avoid” the stock for now. Here’s the breakdown of key signals:

• Williams %R Overbought (WR Overbought): Internal diagnostic score: 7.07 – A strong bullish indicator based on historical performance.
• Williams %R Oversold (WR Oversold): Score: 1.44 – A weak bearish signal with a poor win rate.
• Dividend Payable Date: Score: 1.05 – Biased bearish, with only 3 historical signals.

Recent chart patterns include multiple WR Oversold signals on August 19, 20, and 21, and a WR Overbought on September 5. The market is showing mixed signals and high volatility without a clear trend.

Conclusion

Jabil is in a mixed technical and analytical situation. While fundamentals are decent and cash metrics look strong, technical indicators and fund flows suggest caution. With a technical score of 3.19 and recent bearish indicators, we recommend avoiding Jabil at this time and waiting for clearer momentum or a pullback before considering entry.