Stock Analysis | Jabil Outlook - Bearish Technicals, Mixed Analyst Views, and Weak Fundamentals

Jabil Outlook - Bearish Technicals, Mixed Analyst Views, and Weak Fundamentals

Market Snapshot - Jabil (JBL) is showing weak technical signals, with three bearish indicators dominating over none bullish ones, suggesting a cautious stance.

News Highlights

Recent developments around the semiconductor and manufacturing sectors have had mixed implications for Jabil. The announcement of a $30 billion Texas Instruments expansion in Sherman highlights renewed investment in the semiconductor industry, but this seems to have had little positive effect on Jabil’s stock. In fact, Jabil’s stock has fallen by -5.02% recently, underperforming the broader market trends.

Meanwhile, news about remanufactured surgical instruments used in human trials and digital court expansions in Delhi have no direct bearing on Jabil’s business, but the broader narrative about industrial innovation and regulation remains relevant for long-term investors.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Jabil has attracted two analysts from two high-quality institutions over the last 20 days. Samik Chatterjee (JP Morgan) gave a Buy rating, while Ruben Roy (Stifel) recommended a Strong Buy. However, the ratings show low consistency, with one analyst having a historical win rate of 60.0% and the other only 0.0%.

Combining these, the simple average rating score is 4.50, while the historical performance-weighted rating is 3.94. These ratings conflict with the recent stock price trend, which shows a fall of -5.02%, suggesting a mismatch between analyst optimism and market sentiment.

On the fundamental side, the internal diagnostic score is 5.29. Here are the key factors:

• ROE (Annualized): 28.05% (score: 2)
• Price-to-Cash Flow (PCF): 117.04 (score: 1)
• Price-to-Sales (PS): 5.81 (score: 2)
• EV/EBIT: 129.31 (score: 1)
• Cash-UP: 6.32% (score: 3)
• ROE (Diluted): 15.98% (score: 1)
• Total Profit (YoY): -75.10% (score: 0)

While some metrics like ROE and Cash-UP appear healthy, the sharp drop in total profit is a red flag and is pulling down the overall score.

Money-Flow Trends

Looking at fund-flow patterns, Jabil is experiencing negative trends across all categories. Small, medium, large, and extra-large investors are all showing contraction in inflows, with overall inflow ratios ranging from 42.55% to 48.13%. The fund flow score is 7.72, which is considered good, but it’s somewhat counterintuitive given the negative price trend.

Key Technical Signals

From a technical standpoint, Jabil has 3 bearish indicators and 0 bullish ones, making the overall trend very weak. Here’s a breakdown:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold: Internal diagnostic score 1.13 — historically has led to negative returns of -0.55% with a win rate of 39.39%.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Internal diagnostic score 1.00 — historical returns average -2.27% with 0.00% win rate.
• Dividend Record Date: Internal diagnostic score 1.00 — similarly negative returns and no winning record.

Looking at the recent indicators by date, Jabil has seen repeated WR Oversold signals on August 15, 18, 19, 20, and 21, which is a sign of prolonged bearish pressure. The technical score is just 1.04, which is extremely weak by our standards.

Conclusion

Jabil is in a troubled phase, with poor technicals, mixed analyst opinions, and weak fundamentals. While the fund flow score suggests some institutional support, the price continues to fall. Investors should consider avoiding new positions and wait for clearer signs of reversal or a significant pullback before considering a buy.