Stock Analysis | International Paper Outlook - Strong Technicals and Mixed Analyst Outlook

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: International Paper (IP) is showing strong technical signals with recent price gains of 2.91%, despite a mixed analyst outlook and fundamental concerns.

News Highlights

Recent news has highlighted several developments affecting the paper industry:

• India’s Crypto Policy: The Indian government is set to release a crypto regulation discussion paper in June 2025, drawing from IMF and FSB guidance. While not directly related to IP, it signals global regulatory shifts that could influence market risk appetites.
• Import Surge in India: India's paper and paperboard imports hit a record 2.05 million tonnes in FY25, with a 33% increase from China. This poses challenges for local players, including International Paper, which operates in the region.
• Balkrishna Paper Mills Profit: Balkrishna Paper Mills reported a standalone net profit of Rs 6.96 crore in Q1 2025, a turnaround from a net loss the previous year. While not directly linked to IP, it reflects industry-wide cost and demand pressures.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided on International Paper. The simple average rating is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 1.65. This suggests a discrepancy and a generally pessimistic market outlook.

The recent price trend is upward (2.91%), but this appears to be out of sync with the lower-weighted analyst expectations. The primary analyst, Detlef Winckelmann of JP Morgan, issued a Neutral rating on August 5, 2025. JP Morgan has a historical win rate of 50% over the last 20 days, but their average historical return was -1.34%.

Key fundamental factors and their model scores:

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit (%): 100.00% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• ROA: 0.18% (score: 1)
• GPM: 27.94% (score: 2)
• Cash-UP: 21.22% (score: 1)
• ROE: 0.40% (score: 1)
• CFOA: 1.12% (score: 1)
• NPM: 1.11% (score: 1)
• Total assets turnover ratio: 38.87% (score: 1)
• Cash-MV: 20.35% (score: 2)

With an overall fundamental score of 2.66, the company's fundamentals remain mixed to weak, despite some positive cash and profit metrics.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing a more positive outlook compared to retail investors:

• Extra-large inflow ratio: 53.07% (trend: positive)
• Large inflow ratio: 49.47% (trend: negative)
• Small inflow ratio: 48.99% (trend: negative)
• Overall inflow ratio: 51.43% (trend: positive)
• Block inflow ratio: 52.08% (trend: positive)

The fund-flow score is 7.79 (good), indicating that large investors are generally optimistic about IP, while smaller investors are more cautious or bearish.

Key Technical Signals

International Paper is showing strong technical momentum, with 2 bullish indicators and no bearish ones over the last 5 days.

Internal diagnostic scores for key technical indicators:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold: 8.30 (strong bullish signal with 68.09% win rate and 1.17% average return over 47 historical signals)
• RSI Oversold: 8.27 (very strong bullish signal with 87.50% win rate and 2.58% average return over 8 historical signals)

Recent chart patterns by date:

• August 1: WR Oversold and RSI Oversold
• August 4: WR Oversold and RSI Oversold
• August 5: WR Oversold and RSI Oversold
• August 6: WR Oversold
• August 11: WR Oversold

These readings suggest increasing bullish momentum and reinforce the technical trend of rising opportunities. The overall technical score is 8.29, indicating strong buy-side support for the stock.

Conclusion

International Paper is showing strong technical signals and positive inflows from large investors, despite mixed analyst ratings and weak fundamentals. The key takeaway for investors is to monitor for breakout opportunities, particularly as the stock is currently in an oversold technical state. Given the high internal diagnostic scores for WR and RSI indicators, a continuation of the upward trend appears likely in the near term.