Stock Analysis | International Paper Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Earnings Volatility

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: International Paper (IP) shows mixed signals, with strong technical indicators clashing with a recent earnings-driven price drop of -13.72%. The stock is showing cautious optimism from a technical standpoint but faces uncertainty due to mixed analyst views.

News Highlights

• International Paper Reports Q2 Earnings (July 31): The company reported $75 million in net earnings, or $0.14 per diluted share, with adjusted operating earnings of $105 million, or $0.20 per diluted share. Sales increased to $6.767 billion, up from $5.901 billion in Q1 2025.
• CEO Comments on Momentum (August 3): CEO Andy Silvernail said "momentum is picking up," highlighting progress in the company’s transformation strategy following its merger with DS Smith. This may support a long-term turnaround in performance.
• Director/PDMR Shareholding (August 7): A report highlighted recent acquisitions of shares through employee savings plans, suggesting insider confidence or long-term planning.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts show a divided outlook on International Paper. The simple average rating is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 1.65, indicating that historical performance has reduced confidence in recent ratings. The current price trend is downward (-13.72%), which aligns with the market's pessimistic view based on past analyst performance.

Key Fundamental Values

• ROE: -0.16% (model score: 4.81)
• ROA: -0.0007% (model score: 4.81)
• CFOA: 0.44% (model score: 4.81)
• NPM: 1.11% (model score: 4.81)
• Revenue-Market Cap (Revenue-MV): 3.73% (model score: 4.81)

The overall fundamental model score is 4.81 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), indicating moderate weaknesses in profitability and asset utilization.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money players are showing cautious optimism. The block inflow ratio is 52.42% with a positive overall trend, while retail investors are slightly bearish with Small_trend as negative. Notably, extra-large investors are showing the strongest inflow ratio at 53.51%, suggesting confidence in IP's long-term direction.

Key Technical Signals

International Paper's technical indicators suggest cautious optimism, with three strong bullish signals and only one bearish indicator. The technical score is 7.0 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), indicating a generally strong chart setup.

Indicator Scores and Trends

• RSI Oversold: 8.2 (internal diagnostic score) - Strongly bullish, indicating a potential rebound after a period of overselling.
• WR Oversold: 8.04 (internal diagnostic score) - Strongly bullish, reinforcing the oversold condition in price.
• MACD Death Cross: 7.81 (internal diagnostic score) - Neutral to bullish; shows a potential short-term correction but not a bearish reversal.
• Earnings Release Date: 3.94 (internal diagnostic score) - A bearish factor due to volatility risk around the earnings event.

Recent Chart Patterns

From August 1 to August 5, 2025, the stock showed consistent signs of overselling with both RSI and WR indicators in oversold territory. A MACD death cross was also observed on July 31, 2025, indicating a short-term bearish signal that was offset by continued bullish momentum from RSI and WR.

Conclusion

International Paper presents a mixed outlook: strong technical indicators suggest a potential rebound, but recent earnings and analyst ratings point to ongoing volatility. With an internal technical score of 7.0 and a fundamental model score of 4.81, the stock remains a speculative play. Actionable takeaway: Investors may want to watch for a pull-back or wait for a clearer earnings-driven breakout after the next earnings report or a strong move on key support levels.