Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - A Weak Technical Signal Amid Mixed Analyst and Fundamental Outlooks

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) has experienced a recent price decline of -2.38%, and technical indicators suggest a weak trend, urging caution among investors.

With four bearish signals and just one bullish signal, the internal diagnostic score for technical analysis stands at 2.76/10, indicating that traders should consider avoiding the stock for now.

News Highlights

Recent news has focused on developments in the farm and food processing machinery industries. The Farm Machinery Industry Eyes Modest Recovery article highlights a 12% revenue increase in Brazil from November 2024 to February 2025, suggesting potential long-term tailwinds for IR, which operates in related industrial segments.

A second piece, Industry, Govt Must Work on Indigenous Food Processing Machinery, discusses India's reliance on imported machinery, which could open up international markets for IR in the long term. However, these developments are not yet reflected in near-term price movements.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided but largely neutral. The simple average rating is 3.50, while the performance-weighted rating is slightly lower at 3.22, reflecting the mixed historical performance of participating institutions.

• Barclays has the lowest historical win rate at 33.3%, but recently rated IR as Underperform.
• Stifel stands out with a 71.4% historical win rate and assigned a Neutral rating.
• Baird and Morgan Stanley also offered Buy and Neutral ratings, respectively, with moderate win rates of 66.7% and 50.0%.

This mixed analyst landscape contrasts with the stock’s current price trend, which is negative, suggesting market sentiment is not aligning with expert opinion.

On the fundamental front, Ingersoll Rand’s internal diagnostic score is 1.89/10, signaling poor fundamentals. Here are some key values from the model:

• EV/EBIT: 148.57 (high valuation)
• PE: -143.27 (negative earnings)
• Basic Earnings per Share (YoY Growth Rate): -81.25% (sharp decline in earnings)
• Cash-MV: -0.32 (negative cash relative to market value)

These metrics suggest that while the company maintains a solid asset base (Asset-MV: 0.36), earnings and cash flow are under pressure, weighing on overall fundamentals.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flow patterns indicate that retail investors have been slightly more optimistic than large institutional players. The small-inflow ratio is 50.79%, compared to a block-inflow ratio of 49.25%, signaling some retail support.

However, the overall trend remains negative, with 49.54% of all fund flows pointing downward. The fund flow score of 7.83/10 suggests decent liquidity conditions, but not enough to reverse the current price action.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Ingersoll Rand’s chart is under pressure with a 2.76/10 internal diagnostic score. Below are the key signals:

• MACD Golden Cross: Score: 7.53/10 – a bullish signal that has historically delivered a 1.46% average return.
• Bearish Engulfing: Score: 1.76/10 – a bearish reversal pattern with a 37.5% win rate and -0.2% average return.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Score: 1.00/10 – historically associated with negative returns (-0.59%) and a low win rate of 25%.
• Dividend Record Date: Score: 1.00/10 – similarly negative in historical performance.
• WR Overbought: Score: 2.49/10 – a neutral-to-bearish signal with a 47.37% win rate but -0.22% average return.

On August 19, a MACD Golden Cross appeared, offering a rare positive signal. However, the bearish dominance (4 vs. 1 indicator) means downward momentum remains strong.

Conclusion

Consider waiting for a pull-back. While there is a rare positive technical signal (MACD Golden Cross), the overwhelming technical bias is bearish, with a weak overall trend and an internal diagnostic score of 2.76/10. Analysts are mixed, but fundamentals and fund flow trends point to continued pressure. Given the negative price trend and the bearish sentiment in technical indicators, it may be prudent to monitor the stock from the sidelines for now.