Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - A Weak Technical Profile and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) has seen a 1.59% price rise recently, but our internal technical signals suggest a weak trend and increased downside risk.

News Highlights

• Recovery in Farm Machinery: A modest recovery is emerging in the farm machinery sector in Brazil, with revenue rising 12% in early 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This could benefit manufacturers of agricultural equipment, including companies with supply chain or product overlaps with IR.
• Visa Policy Changes in the US: New visa restrictions on Chinese students and scholars may disrupt higher education and research collaborations. For companies like IR with global operations or R&D partnerships, this could pose a long-term challenge to talent acquisition and innovation.
• Web3 Smartphone Launch: GMTech Inc. announced a new Web3 native smartphone, signaling increasing interest in blockchain-integrated technology. While unrelated directly to IR, it reflects broader tech sector shifts that might impact investor sentiment more generally.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain mixed in their outlook for Ingersoll Rand. The simple average rating is 3.50, while the performance-weighted average is 3.22, indicating some disparity in expectations among institutions. The ratings are consistent in a neutral-to-buy direction, with 2 Neutral and 2 Buy calls in the last 20 days.

However, this mixed sentiment contrasts with a 1.59% recent price rise, suggesting analysts' expectations are broadly aligned with current market movement.

Fundamental Factors and Model Scores

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate %): 9.35% (Model score: 9.88)
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate %): 7.63% (Model score: 19.65)
• Revenue-Market Value (Revenue-MV): 0.045 (Model score: 16.87)
• Net income-Revenue: -9.71% (Model score: 10.87)
• Asset-MV: 0.359 (Model score: 15.67)
• Cash-MV: -0.324 (Model score: 15.84)

Overall, the fundamental model score is 6.16, indicating a moderate positive outlook, but key earnings and profit metrics show weakness in growth and margins.

Money-Flow Trends

Ingersoll Rand has attracted a positive overall money flow, with inflows across all investor categories. The overall inflow ratio is 50.20%, meaning that just over half of the volume is associated with buying pressure. This includes a 50.16% inflow from large institutional or block traders, suggesting that big-money investors are currently showing interest in the stock.

Key Technical Signals

Our internal technical analysis paints a weak picture for Ingersoll Rand. The technical score is 2.97, indicating a bearish bias, with 5 bearish indicators versus just 1 bullish signal.

Recent Chart Patterns

• MACD Golden Cross (Score: 7.53): A bullish signal, though isolated and not yet confirmed by follow-through buying.
• WR Overbought (Score: 2.5): Suggests overbought conditions, potentially leading to a pullback.
• Ex-Dividend Date and Dividend Record Date (Both Score: 1.0): These dates have historically led to a decline, with an average return of -0.59% and a 25% win rate. This adds a bearish bias to the near-term chart.

Trend Quality

Our key insights show that technical indicators are heavily bearish, with 5 bearish signals versus 1 bullish. The overall trend is weak, and we recommend caution or avoidance in the near term.

Conclusion

Ingersoll Rand faces a challenging technical environment despite moderate fundamental strength and a mixed analyst consensus. The bearish technical profile, highlighted by overbought conditions and negative dividend-related signals, suggests a high risk of a near-term correction. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a pullback or improved technical confirmation before committing capital.