Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - Technical Weakness Weighs Despite Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) faces a bearish technical outlook with an internal diagnostic score of 2.63, suggesting investors should exercise caution. However, the stock has recently risen by 3.62%, outpacing its weak technical signals.

News Highlights

Recent headlines provide a mixed outlook for industrial players like Ingersoll Rand:

• Farm machinery industry eyes modest recovery – The sector could benefit as sales stabilize and revenue grows in key markets like Brazil. This may provide a tailwind for IR's agricultural equipment segment.
• Industry, govt must work on indigenous food processing machinery – India's reliance on foreign equipment could pressure local manufacturers, but it may also open up opportunities for IR to expand in this niche.
• ETFGI reports record ETF assets in Asia – While not directly linked to IR, the broader financial market strength may support industrial stocks through improved investor sentiment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have issued a range of views on IR, with a simple average rating of 3.50 and a performance-weighted rating of 3.22. The consensus is consistent with recent ratings evenly split between "Neutral" and "Buy."

Notably, Stifel's Nathan Jones has a strong historical track record (71.4% win rate), and Baird's Michael Halloran also offers a reliable edge (66.7% win rate). However, Barclays’ Julian Mitchell underperforms with a 33.3% win rate. Morgan Stanley’s Chris Snyder is in the middle with a 50.0% win rate.

On the fundamentals, IR scores an internal diagnostic score of 3.7, suggesting moderate strength. Key fundamental factors include:

• EV/EBIT: 148.57 (score: 1)
• PE: -143.27 (score: 1)
• Net cash flow per share (YoY growth %): 9.35% (score: 2)
• Long-term debt to working capital ratio: 2.58% (score: 3)
• Revenue-MV: 3.87% (score: 3)
• Net profit attributable to parent (YoY growth %): -81.61% (score: 0)

These figures highlight a mixed bag: while some liquidity indicators are positive, earnings performance is weak. The stock's valuation metrics (PE and EV/EBIT) suggest overvaluation.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows show a positive overall trend, with inflow ratios across all investor categories above 0.5, indicating broad support:

• Large-inflow ratio: 50.38%
• Extra-large-inflow ratio: 49.83%
• Small-inflow ratio: 51.74%

This data suggests that both institutional and retail investors are still building positions in the stock, despite the bearish technical outlook. The internal fund-flow score is 7.83 (good), showing strong inflow momentum.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, IR is in a weak position. The score of 2.63 reflects a clear bearish bias, with 5 bearish indicators outweighing 0 bullish ones. Here's a breakdown of the key signals:

• WR Overbought – Internal diagnostic score: 2.34 (Neutral rise)
• Ex-Dividend Date – Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 (Biased bearish)
• Dividend Record Date – Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 (Biased bearish)
• MACD Golden Cross – Internal diagnostic score: 5.70 (Bullish bias)
• Bearish Engulfing – Internal diagnostic score: 2.77 (Neutral bias)
• WR Oversold – Internal diagnostic score: 2.96 (Neutral rise)

Recent chart patterns over the last five days include a MACD Golden Cross on 2025-08-19 and a Bearish Engulfing pattern on 2025-08-15, indicating mixed short-term momentum. The bearish calendar-related events (dividend dates) are also weighing on sentiment.

Conclusion

Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back before initiating new positions in Ingersoll Rand. While institutional inflows and analyst ratings provide some support, the technical picture is clearly bearish. Watch for any reversal signals or improved earnings guidance to shift the momentum in favor of long-term buyers.