Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - Technical Weakness Persists Amid Mixed Analyst Ratings

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) has seen a 5.47% price rise recently, but technical indicators remain bearish and suggest caution. The stock has a weak technical score of 2.83 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), while the average analyst rating sits at a neutral 3.50.

News Highlights

Global Agricultural Equipment Recovery: Brazil's farm machinery sector is showing early signs of recovery, with revenue up 12% in early 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. While this is positive for the sector, Ingersoll Rand is not directly mentioned in the article, suggesting this could be more of a tailwind than a direct catalyst.

US China Visa Policy Shift: New visa restrictions could affect over 300,000 Chinese students in the US, including those in critical technical fields. This could indirectly affect Ingersoll Rand if it relies on skilled international talent or supply chain networks tied to China.

ETFGI Asia Pacific ETF Growth: Assets in Asia Pacific ETFs hit a record $1.25 trillion at the end of April, signaling strong investor appetite for diversified exposure. This could indirectly benefit Ingersoll Rand if it's included in such ETFs.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have issued four ratings in the last 20 days, with a simple average rating of 3.50 and a performance-weighted score of 3.22. This suggests that while the ratings are neutral, the weighted average indicates slightly bearish expectations when factoring in historical performance.

• Rating Consistency: The ratings are consistent, with two "Buy" and two "Neutral" calls. However, historical performance varies significantly across analysts.
• Analyst Performance:
  • Nathan Jones (Stifel): 71.4% win rate
  • Michael Halloran (Baird): 66.7% win rate
  • Julian Mitchell (Barclays): 33.3% win rate
  • Chris Snyder (Morgan Stanley): 50.0% win rate
• Price Trend Alignment: The current 5.47% price rise aligns with the "neutral" weighting of analyst expectations, but the strong bearish technical indicators suggest caution ahead.

Key Fundamental Factors

• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): 7.63% (model score: 7.84)
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): 9.35% (model score: 2.83)
• Net income-to-revenue ratio: -9.95% (model score: 2.96)
• Income tax / Total profit ratio: 51.59% (model score: 2.34)
• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate): -81.25% (model score: 2.96)

Money-Flow Trends

Large-scale fund inflows into Ingersoll Rand are positive, with an overall inflow ratio of 50.36%, indicating that more than half of the large institutional funds are moving in a positive direction. All size categories (small, medium, large, and extra-large) are showing inflows, with the strongest trend in medium-sized funds at 50.19%. Retail investors also appear to be participating, but with slightly less enthusiasm.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Ingersoll Rand remains weak, with 5 bearish signals versus 0 bullish in the past five days. The stock has an internal diagnostic score of 2.83, reinforcing a cautious stance.

Recent Indicator Highlights

• WR Overbought (score: 2.34): Seen on August 22 and 14, this indicator suggests short-term overbought conditions that could lead to pullbacks.
• Ex-Dividend Date (score: 1.00): Occurred on August 14; historically this has been bearish, with an average return of -0.59%.
• MACD Golden Cross (score: 6.87): Noted on August 19, this is the only bullish signal in the recent data and historically has a strong win rate of 62.5%.

Key Insight: Bearish signals dominate the chart, with a clear imbalance between bullish and bearish indicators. Investors should remain cautious and avoid entering new long positions without a clear reversal signal.

Conclusion

While Ingersoll Rand has experienced a recent price rise, the technical landscape remains bearish and the fundamental growth metrics are mixed. Given the internal diagnostic score of 2.83, the bearish technical signals, and the lack of strong analyst conviction, it may be wise to consider waiting for a pull-back before taking a position. Watch for a potential reversal signal, particularly in the wake of the upcoming earnings report or as the market digests the broader sector tailwinds.