Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - A Technical and Fundamental Assessment

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) is showing a weak technical outlook with no bullish indicators in recent technical scans. Our internal diagnostic score is a low 2.09, suggesting the stock is best avoided.

News Highlights

Recent Developments:

• Farm machinery industry eyes modest recovery (May 29): Stabilization and a 12% revenue increase from November 2024 to February 2025 are positive for the broader sector, though it's unclear how much it impacts IR's direct operations.
• ETFGI reports $1.25 trillion in ETFs in Asia-Pacific (May 31): This reflects growing institutional interest in diversified assets but doesn’t directly impact IR.
• New York Times secures AI licensing deal (May 30): While not directly relevant to IR, it shows how AI-driven partnerships can boost valuations in media and tech—sectors different from IR's industrial roots.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided, with ratings ranging from "Buy" to "Neutral." Here's how it breaks down:

• Average rating (simple mean): 3.50
• Weighted rating (performance-based): 2.50
• Rating consistency: Dispersed; recent ratings include two "Buy" and two "Neutral" signals.
• Alignment with price trend: Mixed. While the current price trend is down (-0.36%), analysts remain relatively neutral.

Key Fundamental Factors

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY growth %): 7.63% (internal diagnostic score: 7.83)
• Net Income to Revenue Ratio: -9.81% (internal diagnostic score: 2.48)
• Asset to Market Value Ratio: 0.358 (internal diagnostic score: 5.92)
• Cash to Market Value Ratio: -32.38% (internal diagnostic score: 5.92)
• Income Tax to Total Profit Ratio: 51.59% (internal diagnostic score: 2.48)

Fundamental performance shows mixed signals, with some cash flow and asset valuation factors scoring decently but net income and cash positions dragging down the overall outlook.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is flowing out of Ingersoll Rand, with the overall inflow ratio at 49.46%. Specifically:

• Large and extra-large investor trends: Negative (49.5% outflow)
• Small retail investor trend: Positive (51.9% inflow)
• Block investor trend: Negative (49.3% outflow)

Despite some retail buying, institutional and large fund flows are bearish, which could pressure the stock further in the short term.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, the outlook is bearish, with zero bullish signals and five bearish indicators in recent analysis. Here's the breakdown:

Internal Diagnostic Scores for Key Indicators

• Williams %R Overbought: 2.48 / Internal signal: neutral rise
• Williams %R Oversold: 2.82 / Internal signal: neutral rise
• Bearish Engulfing Candle: 2.77 / Internal signal: neutral bias
• Ex-Dividend Date: 1.18 / Internal signal: biased bearish
• Dividend Record Date: 1.18 / Internal signal: biased bearish

Recent Chart Patterns

Notable signals by date include:

• 2025-08-15: Bearish Engulfing pattern
• 2025-08-14: Williams %R overbought, ex-dividend date, and record date signals
• 2025-08-11: Williams %R oversold

Key Insight: The bearish signals are dominant, with 5 out of 5 indicators pointing downward. Momentum is weak, and it’s advised to avoid the stock until a reversal is confirmed.

Conclusion

With an internal diagnostic score of 2.09 and five bearish signals, Ingersoll Rand is currently not a strong buy. Analysts are split, and institutional outflows are significant. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a pull-back or a clear reversal pattern before considering entry. Monitor the upcoming earnings and macroeconomic factors that might influence the industrial sector. For now, caution is warranted.