Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - A Technical Deterioration Weighs on Investor Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) faces a weak technical outlook with bearish signals overwhelming the chart, while recent news highlights show modest recovery in farm machinery and a milestone in clean energy projects.

News Highlights

• Farm Machinery Eyes Modest Recovery: Pedro Estevão Bastos of Abimaq noted a 12% revenue rise in farm machinery sales from November 2024 to February 2025. This could indirectly benefit Ingersoll Rand, which supplies equipment to the agricultural sector.
• Large-Scale Solar and Battery Project in Indonesia-Singapore: TotalEnergies and RGE received a conditional license to import clean firm power to Singapore. This project could influence broader industrial demand, possibly affecting IR’s industrial equipment segment.
• ETF Growth in Asia Pacific Hits Record: ETFGI reported that assets in the ETFs industry in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) reached $1.25 trillion at the end of April 2025. This suggests broader investor appetite, though not directly tied to IR.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain cautiously neutral on Ingersoll Rand, with a simple average rating of 3.50 and a performance-weighted rating of 3.22. The ratings are consistent, showing two "Buy" and two "Neutral" recommendations over the last 20 days.

However, the stock’s technical and fundamental indicators tell a different story. The fundamentals show poor performance, with an internal diagnostic score of 1.99 (0-10, 10 = best). Here are the key factors:

• Net assets per share growth: 0.46% (score: 1)
• EV/EBIT: 148.57 (score: 1)
• ROA: -0.63% (score: 0)
• Profit-MV: -1.68 (score: 0)
• Net income to revenue: -9.70% (score: 3)
• Asset-MV: 35.87% (score: 1)

The fundamentals are mixed, but the lack of profitability and low return metrics suggest caution. These fundamentals are inconsistent with the recent price trend of a 5.47% rise, which may be more driven by market sentiment than actual earnings strength.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is flowing into Ingersoll Rand, with all investor categories showing positive inflow ratios:

• Large investors: 50.08%
• Extra-large investors: 50.59%
• Medium investors: 50.19%
• Small investors: 51.38%

The fund-flow pattern has an internal diagnostic score of 7.84, classified as "good." This suggests that both institutional and retail investors are cautiously optimistic, which contrasts with the bearish technical indicators.

Key Technical Signals

Ingersoll Rand is facing a strong bearish technical environment, with an internal diagnostic score of 2.83. Here are the recent signals and their scores:

• WR Overbought: 2.34 – signals a neutral but weak rise
• MACD Golden Cross: 6.87 – suggests bullish bias but is outweighed by bearish signals
• Ex-Dividend Date: 1.00 – biased bearish
• Dividend Record Date: 1.00 – also bearish

On August 19, a MACD Golden Cross appeared alongside another WR Overbought signal, but these were quickly overshadowed by the Ex-Dividend Date and Dividend Record Date, both with a score of 1.00. The bearish signals dominate, with 5 out of 6 indicators trending downward.

Key Insight: The technical momentum is weak, with bearish indicators overwhelming the chart. This suggests the stock is at risk of a pullback, and investors should exercise caution.

Conclusion

With a poor technical score of 2.83 and weak fundamentals, it's difficult to justify a bullish bet on Ingersoll Rand at this time. While the fund flows are positive and news highlights hint at broader market recovery, the chart remains bearish. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a pull-back or to closely monitor upcoming earnings and analyst upgrades before taking a position.