Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - Navigating a Mixed Market Signal

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) is showing mixed signals: technically weak but with positive inflow dynamics. Investors should proceed with caution.

News Highlights

Recent news events affecting global markets include:

• Trump's 25% tariff on Indian goods could cut US-bound exports by 40–50%, which may indirectly affect industrial machinery and equipment demand, including IR's products.
• FTX's $125 million staking of Ethereum and Solana during bankruptcy raises concerns over asset liquidity, potentially impacting broader market sentiment in the short term.
• Graphjet Technology's expansion in Malaysia is boosting its production capacity, reflecting positive momentum in the broader industrial and semiconductor sectors, which could indirectly support IR's market environment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts from Stifel, Baird, and Barclays have provided recent ratings on IR:

• Stifel (Nathan Jones): 71.4% historical win rate, rated "Neutral" recently.
• Baird (Michael Halloran): 33.3% historical win rate, rated "Buy" recently.
• Barclays (Julian Mitchell): 22.2% historical win rate, rated "Buy" recently.

Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 3.50

Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 3.20

Consistency: Ratings are mixed, with "Neutral" and "Buy" signals both present.

Alignment with Price Trend: These ratings are not aligned with IR's recent price trend of a sharp -13.59% decline, raising questions about current market sentiment.

Key Fundamental Factors and Model Scores:

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY Growth Rate): 7.63% (internal diagnostic score: 4.04)
• Revenue to Market Value Ratio: 0.21 (internal diagnostic score: 3.23)
• Net Income to Revenue Ratio: -11.95% (internal diagnostic score: 2.24)
• CFOA (Cash Flow from Operating Activities): $0.0136 per share (internal diagnostic score: 2.33)
• Net Cash Flow per Share (YoY Growth Rate): 9.35% (internal diagnostic score: 2.60)
• Asset to Market Value Ratio: 0.36 (internal diagnostic score: 2.37)
• Cash to Market Value Ratio: -32.38% (internal diagnostic score: 2.31)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are currently negative, with large and extra-large investors pulling back. The block inflow ratio is at 48.08%, indicating limited interest from institutional capital. However, retail inflow remains positive (52.02%), showing continued retail participation. The fund-flow score of 7.75 (good) suggests that while large players are cautious, smaller investors remain active, potentially supporting near-term price stability.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for IR is cautious, with an internal diagnostic score of 4.04 and a trend described as "technically weak, with no clear direction." Here are the key indicators:

• WR (Williams %R) Overbought: internal diagnostic score: 2.33
• WR Oversold: internal diagnostic score: 2.60
• RSI (Relative Strength Index) Oversold: internal diagnostic score: 6.71
• Earnings Release Date: internal diagnostic score: 4.50

Recent Chart Patterns by Date:

• August 7: WR Oversold
• August 6: WR Oversold
• August 1: WR Oversold and RSI Oversold
• July 31: Earnings Release
• July 28: WR Overbought

Key Insight: Two bearish signals are active, while zero bullish signals are present, reinforcing the "technically weak" trend. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase with unclear direction.

Conclusion

Ingersoll Rand is showing a mixed profile: technically weak, with bearish indicators dominating, but with strong retail inflow and some positive technical factors like RSI oversold. While the fundamentals show modest operational growth, the recent price drop (-13.59%) has not been supported by the analyst community, which is issuing a mixed bag of ratings. Investors may want to consider waiting for a clearer breakout signal or a pullback after earnings.

Actionable Takeaway: Monitor the upcoming earnings release (July 31) and watch for any breakout from the consolidation pattern on charts. A follow-up analysis may be warranted if the RSI oversold condition triggers a reversal in the next few days.