Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Weak Technicals and Strong Fund-Flow Trends

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR.N) shows a modest price rise of 0.68%, but technical indicators remain bearish, with a weak trend score of 2.79 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).

2. News Highlights

Recent headlines point to broader sector shifts rather than direct impacts on IR:

• Farm Machinery Recovery: Brazilian industry leaders note a 12% revenue rise from November 2024 to February 2025, suggesting potential tailwinds for industrial equipment makers.
• US Vaccine Policy Changes: Adjustments in federal guidelines may shift long-term demand in healthcare sectors, indirectly affecting manufacturing firms like IR.
• Titan Machinery Earnings Beat: Titan's first-quarter results suggest improving demand in machinery, potentially hinting at a broader industry trend that could benefit IR in the long term.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Analyst Rating: 3.50 (simple mean), while the weighted historical performance rating is 3.22. Analyst views are consistent, with recent ratings split evenly between "Buy" and "Neutral."

Price Trend Alignment: The current price trend (up 0.68%) matches the neutral to bearish analyst expectations, indicating some divergence between short-term price action and analyst sentiment.

Key Fundamental Metrics:

• EV/EBIT: 148.57 (score: 1)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY growth rate %): 9.35% (score: 1)
• Revenue-MV: 0.0349 (score: 3)
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders (YoY growth rate %): -81.61% (score: 0)
• Net Income-Revenue: -8.55% (score: 1)
• Asset-MV: 0.3599 (score: 1)

Fundamental scores remain mixed, with some positive cash flow indicators offset by negative net profit and asset metrics.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Ingersoll Rand’s fund-flow trends show strong positive movement across all investor segments:

• Overall Inflow Ratio: 50.41%, signaling broad buying interest.
• Small, Medium, and Large Inflows: All above 50%, with the highest inflow in the large-cap segment at 50.54%.
• Extra-large Inflow Ratio: 50.46%, reinforcing the trend of institutional and large-scale investor confidence.

With a fund-flow score of 7.82 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), the stock is currently attracting a broad and consistent flow of capital.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators paint a bearish picture for Ingersoll Rand:

• MACD Golden Cross: This bullish signal has a 7.53 internal diagnostic score, suggesting strong momentum, but it's the only positive indicator.
• Bearish Engulfing: With a score of 1.76, it's one of the most bearish signals in the model.
• Ex-Dividend Date / Dividend Record Date: Both carry 1.00 scores and are historically associated with negative returns.
• WR Overbought: Scored at 2.64, it's a neutral-to-weak signal, not typically a strong driver of price direction.

Recent Chart Patterns (Past 5 Days):

• August 26: WR Overbought
• August 19: WR Overbought and MACD Golden Cross
• August 14: WR Overbought, Ex-Dividend Date, and Dividend Record Date
• August 15: Bearish Engulfing
• August 22: WR Overbought

While the MACD Golden Cross suggests some upside potential, the overwhelming number of bearish signals (4 bearish vs 1 bullish) indicates a weak trend, as confirmed by the technical score of 2.79 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).

6. Conclusion

Despite some positive money-flow and a bullish MACD crossover, the broader technical landscape for Ingersoll Rand remains bearish. With four negative indicators and an overall technical score of 2.79, the risk-reward balance tilts toward caution. Investors may want to consider waiting for a pull-back before committing new capital. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings season and any shifts in analyst sentiment for clearer entry signals.