Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Opinions

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: While recent news shows industry resilience and a modest price rise, technical indicators remain weak — suggesting caution for investors.

News Highlights

• Farm Machinery Industry Eyes Modest Recovery (May 29, 2025): Sales have stabilized and revenue rose 12% compared to the same period in the previous year, signaling a potential rebound in the agricultural sector — a sector where Ingersoll Rand has exposure.
• US Visa Policy Shifts May Disproportionately Affect Chinese Students: The US’ new China visa policy could affect 300,000 students, including those studying in critical fields. While the direct link to Ingersoll Rand is unclear, the policy could ripple across global education and tech sectors.
• ETFGI Reports ETF Growth in Asia (May 31, 2025): Assets in ETFs in the Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) hit a record $1.25 trillion. This broader market optimism could indirectly benefit industrial and machinery stocks, including Ingersoll Rand.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Analyst Rating (Simple Mean): 3.50 (on a 5-point scale, where 5 is best)

Performance-Weighted Rating: 3.22 — factoring in historical performance and reliability of the analysts.

Rating Consistency: Analysts have shown consistent expectations, with 2 "Buy" and 2 "Neutral" ratings in the last 20 days.

Price Trend Alignment: The stock has risen 0.68% recently, and analyst expectations are neutral, meaning the market is somewhat aligned with analyst sentiment, but not overly bullish or bearish.

Key Fundamental Factor Values and Internal Model Scores

• EV/EBIT: 148.57 (internal diagnostic score: 1) — high ratio indicates elevated valuation concerns.
• PE Ratio: -143.27 (internal diagnostic score: 1) — negative PE suggests financial difficulties or unprofitability.
• Asset-MV: 0.36 (internal diagnostic score: 1) — weak asset performance relative to market trends.
• Cash-UP: -0.06 (internal diagnostic score: 2) — cash flow trends are slightly negative.
• Revenue-MV: 0.02 (internal diagnostic score: 1) — weak revenue momentum.
• CFOA: 0.01 (internal diagnostic score: 0) — operating cash flow is minimal or negative.
• Profit-MV: -1.67 (internal diagnostic score: 0) — negative profitability trend relative to market.
• Basic EPS Growth YoY: -81.25% (internal diagnostic score: 0) — steep earnings decline.

Note: All internal diagnostic scores range from 0 to 10, where 10 is best.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing cautious optimism, with inflow ratios across all categories (extra-large to small) hovering around 0.50 to 0.51. The overall fund flow score is 7.82 (score level: "good"), suggesting that large institutional money is flowing into the stock at a moderate pace. Retail investors also show a positive trend, with inflow ratios slightly above 0.50, indicating some retail interest in the stock. However, with weak fundamentals and technicals, it remains to be seen whether this inflow will sustain.

Key Technical Signals

• Bearish Engulfing (Internal Score: 1.76): A bearish reversal pattern that suggests downward pressure.
• MACD Golden Cross (Internal Score: 7.53): A bullish signal that historically correlates with upward momentum.
• Ex-Dividend Date (Internal Score: 1.00): Historically weak pattern, with a 25% win rate and -0.59% average return.
• Dividend Record Date (Internal Score: 1.00): Also weak, with similar performance to the ex-dividend date.
• WR Overbought (Internal Score: 2.64): Indicates overbought conditions, but historical performance has been mixed.

Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days):

• 2025-08-22: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-19: WR Overbought, MACD Golden Cross
• 2025-08-14: WR Overbought, Ex-Dividend Date, Dividend Record Date

Technical Summary: The stock has more bearish signals (4) than bullish (1), and the overall trend is weak. The technical score is 2.79 (on a 10-point scale), suggesting that technical indicators are not in favor of a near-term positive move.

Conclusion

Ingersoll Rand (IR) is in a mixed state. While there is some institutional inflow and a slight price rise in the short term, fundamentals and technicals remain weak. Analysts are divided, but the average and weighted ratings are neutral to slightly negative. The technical score of 2.79 is a red flag for short-term traders. Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer technical signal or earnings event — but be cautious of the bearish indicators currently dominating the chart.