Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - A Challenging Path for Investors

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) is facing a weak technical outlook, with bearish signals dominating and the overall score indicating caution.

The stock is currently trading with a slight rise of 0.40%, but our internal diagnostic score (0-10) for technical conditions is just 2.2, which signals a weak trend and a suggestion to avoid the stock for now.

News Highlights

Recent news may offer indirect clues about the broader market backdrop:

• May 29, 2025: The farm machinery sector is showing signs of a modest recovery, with revenue up 12% from November 2024 to February 2025. While this doesn't directly impact IR, it suggests a potential tailwind for industrial equipment players if the trend continues.
• May 31, 2025: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is revising its policy on how it approves and recommends vaccines. This news is more relevant to healthcare stocks, but it shows regulatory shifts that can ripple across sectors.
• May 31, 2025: China's factory activity contracted in May, though at a slower rate than in April. This indicates ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that could impact global industrial demand, which could indirectly affect IR's performance.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape for IR is mixed:

• Average rating score (simple mean): 3.50
• Weighted rating score (performance-weighted): 3.22
• Rating consistency: The ratings are consistent, with four institutions rating the stock as either "Buy" or "Neutral" in the last 20 days.

However, these ratings clash with the current price trend of a 0.40% rise, which is positive. Analysts from Barclays, Stifel, Morgan Stanley, and Baird have all weighed in, but Stifel has the best historical performance with a win rate of 71.4%.

Key Fundamental Factors

Below are the key fundamental factor values and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• EV/EBIT: 148.57
• PE: -143.27
• ROA: -0.63%
• Profit-MV: -1.67
• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate %): -81.25%
• Long-term debt to working capital ratio (%): 2.58%
• CFOA: 1.36%
• Asset-MV: 0.36
• Cash-MV: -0.32
• Revenue-MV: 0.03

Money-Flow Trends

Large investors are showing a positive trend in fund flows, with the overall trend being positive across all categories:

• Small_inflow_ratio: 50.28%
• Medium_inflow_ratio: 50.75%
• Large_inflow_ratio: 50.96%
• Extra-large_inflow_ratio: 51.38%

The fund flow score (0-10) for IR is 7.87, suggesting that big money is still favoring the stock despite the weak technical outlook.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators for Ingersoll Rand are currently bearish:

• WR Overbought: internal diagnostic score (0-10): 2.49 - This suggests a neutral rise in the short term, but with a poor historical performance (avg. return -0.22%) and a win rate of just 47.37%.
• WR Oversold: internal diagnostic score (0-10): 2.81 - A slightly better score than WR Overbought, but still weak. It has a historical average return of 0.44% and a win rate of 47.27%.
• Dividend Payable Date: internal diagnostic score (0-10): 1.31 - The weakest of the three, with a historical average return of -0.17% and a win rate of only 33.33%.

Key Insights: Bearish signals are clearly dominant with 3 bearish vs. 0 bullish indicators. The recent 5-day period shows mixed signals, including both overbought and oversold conditions, but the overall trend remains weak.

Conclusion

Takeaway: Given the weak technical score of 2.2 and the dominance of bearish indicators, it may be wise to avoid the stock for now and wait for a clearer trend to emerge. While the fundamentals are mixed and the fund-flow trends are positive, the immediate chart signals suggest caution.

Investors should keep an eye on the upcoming earnings and any shifts in the broader industrial sector, as these could offer more clarity on IR's near-term direction.