Stock Analysis | Ingersoll Rand Outlook - A Cautionary Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Ingersoll Rand (IR) is showing a weak technical outlook with bearish signals dominating, and its price has fallen -0.36% recently.

Analysts are divided, with recent ratings showing two "Buy" and two "Neutral" calls, but internal diagnostic scores (0-10) indicate technical weakness and caution for investors.

2. News Highlights

• Farm Machinery Market Recovery: A recent report from Brazil indicates that the farm machinery industry is showing a modest rebound, with revenue up 12% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. While this is positive, it is unlikely to have a direct impact on IR, which is more focused on industrial and climate technologies.
• US China Visa Policy: The new U.S. policy that could revoke visas of Chinese students with ties to the Chinese Communist Party has caused uncertainty in the education and technology sectors. Though not directly relevant to IR, it reflects broader geopolitical tensions that could affect global markets.
• Web3 Smartphone Launch: GMTech Inc. announced a new Web3-native smartphone, highlighting innovation in the tech space. This could signal broader trends in digital infrastructure, but it's unlikely to directly affect IR's core business segments.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: 3.50 (simple mean of analyst ratings)

Weighted Rating Score: 2.50 (performance-weighted score based on historical accuracy)

Rating Consistency: Analysts are split, with no clear consensus. Two of the four active analysts have issued "Buy" ratings, but two others have rated it "Neutral."

Alignment with Price Trend: The recent price fall aligns with the weighted expectations of market participants.

Key Fundamental Factors and Model Scores:

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): 9.35% (internal diagnostic score: 2.48)
• Net income-Revenue margin: -9.73% (score: 2.82)
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): 7.63% (score: 2.48)
• Shareholders’ equity growth (YoY): -0.90% (score: 2.82)
• Revenue-to-Market Value: 0.05 (score: 3.00)
• Asset-to-Market Value: 0.36 (score: 3.00)

The fundamental score stands at 7.29, which is positive, but it contrasts with the weak technical indicators and bearish market flow. Investors should consider the divergence between fundamentals and market sentiment before taking action.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money is currently showing a negative trend, with large and extra-large investors pulling funds. However, retail investors (small retail) are showing a positive trend, which is unusual and could indicate a short-term buying opportunity.

• Small investor inflow ratio: 51.87%
• Large investor inflow ratio: 49.50%
• Overall inflow ratio: 49.46%
• Block investor trend: Negative

The overall fund-flow score is 7.83, indicating a "good" level of inflow. However, the divergence between small and large investor trends suggests caution.

5. Key Technical Signals

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 2.48
• WR Oversold: Score: 2.82
• Ex-Dividend Date: Score: 1.18
• Dividend Record Date: Score: 1.18

Recent Indicators (by Date):

• 2025-08-14: WR Overbought, Ex-Dividend Date, Dividend Record Date triggered simultaneously, signaling bearish pressure.
• 2025-08-11: WR Oversold showed mild bullish potential but was quickly negated by the following session’s signals.

Key Insight: The technical side is weak, with four bearish indicators versus zero bullish ones in the past 5 days. Momentum is clearly bearish, and it is suggested to avoid the stock for now.

6. Conclusion

Ingersoll Rand (IR) is in a precarious technical position, with bearish signals dominating. While the fundamentals remain reasonably strong (7.29 internal diagnostic score), the current price trend and market flow suggest caution.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a potential pull-back or clearer technical signals before entering a long position. Keep a close eye on the upcoming dividend dates and market flow developments in the next few weeks.