Stock Analysis | The Hershey Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Key Fundamentals and Market Volatility

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Hershey's technicals remain weak with a 4.62 internal diagnostic score (0-10), but strong fundamentals and solid money flows suggest a mixed outlook.

News Highlights

1. DoorDash CEO Tony Xu becomes industry consolidator

DoorDash, a major player in food delivery, continues to grow through acquisitions. With a $90 billion valuation and recent purchases of Deliveroo and SevenRooms, its expansion strategy could indirectly affect Hershey's supply chain or distribution models.

2. India's processed food exports surge 15% YoY

India’s processed food exports hit $2.13 billion in April 2025, driven by strong rice and meat shipments. This global trend in food exports signals growing demand for packaged and processed foods, which could benefit Hershey’s international operations.

3. BigBasket launches 10-minute food delivery in Bengaluru

BigBasket's foray into rapid food delivery with Starbucks and Qmin highlights the growing competition in the sector. If this trend continues, it could influence distribution strategies for packaged goods, including Hershey’s products.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Consensus: The average rating from analysts is 2.71 (simple mean), and the performance-weighted average is 3.01. Rating consistency is high, with a "consistent" label and five neutral and two sell ratings in the past 20 days.

Analyst Performance Highlights:

• Chris Carey (Wells Fargo): 100.0% historical win rate, 1 recent "Sell" rating.
• Matthew Edward Smith (Stifel): 60.0% historical win rate, 1 recent "Neutral" rating.
• Andrew Lazar (Barclays): 50.0% historical win rate, 1 recent "Neutral" rating.

These scores suggest analysts are cautious, with a slight bearish tilt. The current price trend is up by 3.00%, but ratings remain neutral-to-sell, indicating a lack of strong consensus on future direction.

Key Fundamental Values and Scores:

• ROA (Return on Assets): 0.46% (internal score: 0.00)
• Net Profit Margin: 5.29% (internal score: 0.00)
• EV/EBIT: 91.88 (internal score: 0.00)
• Net Income / Revenue: -1.43% (internal score: 0.00)
• CFOA (Cash Flow from Operating Activities): 0.82% (internal score: 0.00)

Hershey's fundamentals remain strong, with a 6.92 internal diagnostic score (0-10). However, the EV/EBIT and Net Income / Revenue metrics show some pressure, suggesting a mixed performance picture.

Money-Flow Trends

The overall fund-flow score is 7.81 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), indicating strong inflows. Big-money players (extra-large and large) show a 48.57% and 49.04% inflow ratio respectively, while retail (small) inflows sit at 49.54%. This suggests that both retail and institutional investors are showing interest in the stock despite bearish technical indicators.

Key Technical Signals

Technical Score: 4.62 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) – indicating a weak trend and cautious outlook.

Key Recent Indicators (Last 5 Days):

• 2025-08-13: Marubozu White – 5.82 internal score (bullish bias).
• 2025-08-12: WR Oversold – 3.63 internal score (neutral rise).
• 2025-08-15: Bearish Engulfing, Ex-Dividend Date, Dividend Record Date – bearish and bullish signals mixed, with the highest score going to the Ex-Dividend Date at 7.75.

Key Insights: Technical indicators remain mixed, with bearish signals (4) dominating over bullish ones (1). The market is in a volatile state and the overall trend remains uncertain, requiring a cautious approach.

Conclusion

Hershey is facing a mixed outlook, with strong fundamentals and solid money flows counterbalanced by weak technical indicators. Analysts remain divided, with some calling for caution and others showing slight optimism. Given the volatility and mixed signals, it may be wise to consider waiting for a clearer trend to emerge or closely monitor upcoming earnings and dividend events, especially with the recent ex-dividend date signaling some potential short-term activity.