Stock Analysis | Halliburton Outlook - Weak Technicals and Mixed Analysts Raise Caution

Market Snapshot

Halliburton (HAL) faces a challenging technical landscape with a weak internal diagnostic score of 2.4, suggesting investors should proceed cautiously. The recent price trend has risen 2.32%, but fundamentals and analyst ratings remain mixed.

News Highlights

• Michigan Energy Commitments – Two large energy firms pledged to boost Michigan manufacturing in energy, potentially impacting the broader energy sector in the long run.
• Equipment Mergers – Herc Holdings completed its tender offer for H&E Equipment Services, a deal valued at $78.75 per share plus stock. While not directly involving Halliburton, such consolidations may influence equipment and service market dynamics.
• Green Energy Developments – Jinan, China, showcased new low-carbon charging and battery-swap technologies, highlighting a global push toward clean energy infrastructure that could affect Halliburton’s long-term opportunities in energy transition.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided in their recent ratings: Josh Silverstein (UBS) gave a Neutral rating, while James West (Melius Research) issued a Strong Buy. The simple average rating is 4.00, and the performance-weighted rating is 3.99, indicating some consistency in the outlook but with divergent strategies.

UBS (historical winning rate 83.3%, 6 prior predictions) carries a stronger reputation compared to Melius Research (50% historical win rate, 2 prior predictions). Despite these mixed signals, the price trend is up 2.32%, aligning with the "neutral" market expectations.

Key fundamentals include:

• Net profit margin: -5.80% (internal score: 3.00)
• Return on Assets (ROA): 1.89% (internal score: 3.00)
• Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio: 36.70 (internal score: 0.00)
• Cash-to-Market Value (Cash-MV): 90.85% (internal score: 5.94)
• Earnings per Share (YoY growth): -47.30% (internal score: 0.00)

While some metrics like Cash-MV show strength, the poor growth rates and margins suggest caution. The overall fundamental score is 5.94, which is moderate, but the low scores on earnings and margins are red flags.

Money-Flow Trends

Large investors are showing a negative trend with a block inflow ratio of 49.00%, while retail and mid-sized investors are slightly more positive, with medium and small inflow ratios at ~50.50%. This divergence suggests that big money is cautious, while retail investors remain optimistic. The overall inflow ratio is 49.33%, indicating a mildly bearish sentiment among major players.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook is bleak for Halliburton. The internal diagnostic score is a low 2.4, reflecting weak momentum and a strong bearish bias.

• Williams %R Overbought has been active since early August with a score of 1.34 (internal diagnostic score). Historical data shows an average return of -0.20% and a win rate of 39.58% — a clear bearish signal.
• Bullish Engulfing appeared briefly on August 27 with a score of 3.45, but it had a negative average return (-1.40%) and a 53.85% win rate, indicating limited upside potential.

In the last five days (through September 2, 2025), Williams %R Overbought has been repeated multiple times, including on August 25, 27, 28, 29, and 2, showing a consistent bearish pattern. The key insight: technical indicators show a weak market state with a high risk of further decline.

Conclusion

Halliburton is under pressure from both technical and fundamental sides. With a poor technical score of 2.4, mixed analyst views, and declining earnings and margins, investors should consider avoiding new positions and possibly trimming existing exposure. While the market remains slightly optimistic in the short term, the fundamentals and technical indicators point to a weak near-term outlook. It may be wise to wait for a clearer signal or a meaningful pullback before considering entry.