Stock Analysis | Halliburton Outlook - Bearish Signals Pile Up Amid Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Halliburton (HAL) is under pressure technically with a weak trend and bearish signals dominating, yet fundamentals show moderate strength. The stock has risen 6.56% recently, but internal diagnostic scores suggest caution.

News Highlights

• Michigan Energy Partnership: Two major energy companies have committed to using Michigan-made equipment, which could benefit Halliburton as a supplier in the energy sector.
• Herc Holdings Completes Tender Offer: Herc Holdings Inc. successfully acquired H&E Equipment Services, which could signal broader strength in the equipment rental and services market—potentially a positive backdrop for Halliburton's operations.
• Global Hydrogen Developments: A hydrogen equipment manufacturer in China saw a sharp rise in its dark pool trading, indicating heightened investor interest in energy transition technologies, which could influence long-term demand for Halliburton's services.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Consensus: Two active analysts have issued ratings in the last 20 days: one "Strong Buy" and one "Neutral." The simple average rating is 4.00, and the weighted average is 3.50, suggesting mixed expectations. The ratings are not aligned, with UBS holding a 66.7% historical win rate, while Melius Research has a 100% win rate but fewer predictions.

Price Trend Alignment: Despite the bearish technical outlook, the stock has risen 6.56% recently, showing a mismatch between technical and price signals. Analysts appear more neutral than bullish, which complicates the immediate outlook.

Fundamental Highlights

• Operating Cash Flow to Revenue Ratio: 11.65% — internal diagnostic score of 3.00.
• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 8.71% — internal diagnostic score of 3.00.
• Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: 36.70 — internal diagnostic score of 0.00 (poorly rated).
• Return on Assets (ROA): 1.89% — internal diagnostic score of 2.00.
• Net Income to Revenue: -5.88% — internal diagnostic score of 3.00 (negative relationship).
• Operating Cash Flow to Market Cap (Cash-MV): 90.76% — internal diagnostic score of 6.00 (a positive sign for liquidity).

Money-Flow Trends

Big Money Is Skeptical: Large and extra-large institutional flows are trending negatively, with inflow ratios below 50% (e.g., 48.8% for extra-large). This contrasts with positive inflows from small investors, who have a 50.0% inflow ratio.

Overall Fund Flow Score: Halliburton earned an internal diagnostic score of 7.91 (on a 10-point scale), placing it in the "good" category for fund flow. While small investors are optimistic, large money is clearly cautious.

Key Technical Signals

Technical Score: Halliburton’s technical position is weak, with a score of 2.73 out of 10. Only two bearish signals are active, while no bullish indicators are in play.

Recent Indicator Details

• Williams %R Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 1.03 — bearish, with a 37.78% win rate and -0.28% average return.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score of 4.38 — neutral, with a 54.55% win rate and 0.13% average return.
• Bullish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score of 2.79 — neutral bias, with a 50.0% win rate and -1.62% average return.

Recent Pattern Activity: - August 22, 2025: Williams %R Overbought and MACD Golden Cross - August 25: Williams %R Overbought - August 27: Williams %R Overbought and Bullish Engulfing - August 28: Williams %R Overbought - August 29: Williams %R Overbought

Key Insight: Bearish signals are clearly dominant, with 2 bearish vs 0 bullish indicators. The overall trend is weak, and the model suggests avoiding the stock at this time.

Conclusion

Halliburton is in a technically weak position with mixed fundamental and analyst signals. While some fundamentals and fund flows remain positive, the bearish technical indicators suggest caution. Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or further confirmation of trend stability before committing capital. Watch for earnings updates or sector-wide shifts in the energy transition narrative, which could drive renewed optimism.