Stock Analysis | Gartner Outlook - Technical Weaknesses Overshadow Mixed Fundamentals and Mixed Analyst Ratings

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Gartner (IT.N) is showing a weak technical profile, but fundamentals are mixed with recent price rising slightly (0.19%). Analysts are split, with market expectations trending neutral. Internal diagnostic scores highlight the technical challenges, but fundamentals show moderate promise.

News Highlights

Recent news has mostly focused on unrelated sectors, with only indirect relevance to Gartner:

• May 31: Reliable Data Services Reports Strong Sales Growth – This shows continued business growth in data services, which may highlight broader industry trends, but is not directly tied to Gartner’s operations.
• May 31: JAMining Expands FCA-Regulated Cloud Mining Services – This demonstrates continued crypto market activity, but again, is not directly relevant to Gartner.
• May 30: Outpace SEO Launches Specialized SEO Services – This underlines growing demand for digital marketing services, which may offer broader market optimism but doesn’t directly impact Gartner’s business model.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are showing a mixed outlook on Gartner (IT.N), with recent ratings ranging from 'Strong Buy' to 'Sell.'

• Average Rating Score: The simple mean rating score is 3.12, while the historical-performance weighted score is 2.72.
• Rating Consistency: Analysts are not aligned, with ratings showing clear dispersion (Neutral: 4, Sell: 2, Strong Buy: 1, Buy: 1).
• Price Trend Mismatch: The current price is rising (0.19%), but the weighted expectations from analysts are neutral to negative, suggesting a disconnect between analyst sentiment and market action.

Fundamental Factors and Model Scores

Key financial metrics and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10) reveal a mixed but generally moderate profile:

• Asset-liability ratio (%): 81.60% – Internal diagnostic score: 1 (weak). High leverage may raise risk.
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit (%): 100.00% – Internal diagnostic score: 3 (marginal positive).
• Equity multiplier: 5.43 – Internal diagnostic score: 2 (below average). Suggests higher financial risk.
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 68.47% – Internal diagnostic score: 1 (weak). Margins are strong, but scoring is low.
• Income tax / Total profit (%): 22.76% – Internal diagnostic score: 3 (moderate). Tax efficiency appears decent.
• Current assets turnover ratio: 0.79 – Internal diagnostic score: 3 (moderate). Assets are not being turned over efficiently.
• Cash-Market Value ratio (Cash-MV): -45.54% – Internal diagnostic score: 2 (below average). May indicate liquidity issues.
• Net profit / Total profit (%): 77.24% – Internal diagnostic score: 1 (weak). Earnings are not fully translating to net profit.

Money-Flow Trends

Capital flows for Gartner show a negative trend across all categories:

• Overall Inflow Ratio: 46.81% – Suggests weak inflow momentum.
• Block Inflow Ratio: 46.42% – Institutional and large investor inflows are also negative, indicating bearish sentiment.
• Large and Extra-Large Investor Trends: negative – These big-money investors are exiting or avoiding the stock.
• Retail Inflow Ratio (Small): 49.33% – Retail investors are slightly more positive, but still negative overall.

The fund flow score is 7.62 (internal diagnostic score), marked as good, but the negative trends in both large and small investors suggest a bearish bias.

Key Technical Signals

Gartner’s technical indicators are heavily bearish, with no bullish signals in the past 5 days:

• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 2.74 – Neutral to bearish bias. Historically, this signal has had a 42.86% win rate with an average return of 0.1%.
• WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 1 – Strongly bearish. This has historically returned an average of -1.85% with a 26.44% win rate.
• Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 1 – Strongly bearish. Historically, this candlestick pattern has had a win rate of just 25.0% and an average return of -1.39%.
• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 6.49 – Mixed bias. Suggests an overbought condition, but historically had a win rate of 58.73% and average return of 0.36%.

Recent Indicators by Date (Last 5 Days):

• Aug 22: WR Overbought – Suggests a potential top.
• Aug 21: WR Overbought – Overbought condition remains.
• Aug 15: WR Oversold + Bearish Engulfing – Strong bearish signal.
• Aug 14: WR Oversold – Market sentiment deteriorating.
• Aug 20: WR Overbought + MACD Golden Cross – Mixed signals, but bearish bias remains.

Key Insight: The technical profile is weak. There are 3 bearish signals and 0 bullish ones, with only 1 neutral indicator. This suggests a strong bearish momentum and a potential risk of a further decline.

Conclusion

Gartner (IT.N) presents a cautious outlook. While fundamentals are mixed and some capital flows remain positive, the technical indicators are strongly bearish, and analyst ratings are dispersed. Given the internal diagnostic score of 2.81 on the technical side and recent bearish patterns, investors should consider avoiding Gartner for now. A pull-back or clearer positive momentum may be needed before entering or re-evaluating a position in this stock.