Stock Analysis | Garmin Outlook - A Technical and Fundamental Deep Dive for 2025

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Garmin is in a technically neutral state with mixed signals, prompting investors to monitor for a clearer trend.

News Highlights

Recent news surrounding Garmin hasn’t directly impacted its operations, but global developments may affect broader markets:

• U.S. Visa Restrictions: The U.S. has imposed new visa restrictions on students and exchange visitors, potentially affecting international student enrollment and related markets. While not directly tied to Garmin, this policy shift could influence global economic conditions.
• Trump Tariffs Impacting Retail: Apparel retailer GAP announced that Trump's tariffs will significantly affect its operating income, illustrating the potential ripple effects of trade policies. Retail and consumer sectors could face similar pressures in the near term.
• American ETF Growth: Assets in Asia-Pacific ETFs (excluding Japan) hit a record $1.25 trillion, signaling strong investor confidence in the region. This could benefit tech stocks like Garmin if market conditions stabilize and fund flows continue to trend upward.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have shown a mixed outlook for Garmin over the past 20 days:

• Average Rating (Simple Mean): 2.33
• Weighted Rating (Performance-Weighted): 1.28
• Rating Consistency: There is a clear disparity in analyst ratings, with two "Sell" ratings and one "Neutral" rating. This suggests a lack of consensus among analysts.
• Alignment with Price Trend: The current price of Garmin has risen by 3.02%, while analyst expectations are generally bearish. This mismatch could signal either a potential overvaluation or a market outperforming expectations.

Key Fundamental Factors (Values):

• Net Profit Margin: 21.90% – internal diagnostic score (0-10): 3
• EV/EBIT: 47.11 – internal diagnostic score (0-10): 2
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities / Operating Revenue: 17.73% – internal diagnostic score (0-10): 4
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit: 100.00% – internal diagnostic score (0-10): 2
• Shareholders’ Equity Growth Rate: 3.53% – internal diagnostic score (0-10): 2

Money-Flow Trends

Garmin has experienced a negative overall trend in large and extra-large investor inflows, but some positive activity has emerged at the retail level:

• Large-Investor Flow: Large and extra-large investors have shown a negative trend, with large-inflow ratios at 48.37% and extra-large at 44.71%.
• Retail Flow: Small investors have shown a positive trend, with a small-inflow ratio of 51.00%. This suggests that retail investors may be accumulating shares in anticipation of a potential rebound.
• Fund Flow Score: 7.75 – internal diagnostic score (0-10): 8, indicating positive money flow dynamics.

Key Technical Signals

Garmin's technical indicators are mixed, with both bullish and bearish signals in recent days:

• Williams %R Oversold: internal diagnostic score (0-10): 8.97 – a strong bullish signal suggesting potential price rebound.
• MACD Golden Cross: internal diagnostic score (0-10): 8.3 – another strong bullish indicator showing a positive momentum shift.
• Williams %R Overbought: internal diagnostic score (0-10): 3.79 – a neutral to bearish signal suggesting caution around overbought conditions.
• Bearish Engulfing: internal diagnostic score (0-10): 4.59 – a neutral to bearish pattern observed on recent candles.

Recent Chart Patterns (August 2025):

• August 11: Bearish Engulfing pattern observed.
• August 13: Williams %R Overbought signal triggered.
• August 14: Both Williams %R Overbought and MACD Golden Cross signals appeared simultaneously.

Key Insights: Technical indicators suggest a moderate attention trend, as the market is in a volatile, neutral state. Both bullish and bearish signals are present, so investors should closely monitor developments for a breakout in either direction.

Conclusion

Garmin remains in a technically neutral and volatile phase, with mixed signals from both technical indicators and analyst ratings. Retail investors appear to be showing interest, but large investors remain cautious. The recent appearance of strong bullish signals like the MACD Golden Cross and Williams %R Oversold suggest that a potential upward move is on the horizon, though overbought conditions and bearish engulfing patterns warn of potential corrections. Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or a clearer breakout signal before entering new positions.