Stock Analysis | Fortive Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Fortive (FTV) faces a weak technical outlook with no bullish indicators and five bearish signals, while the fundamental backdrop shows mixed growth indicators.

Our internal diagnostic score (0-10) for technical strength stands at just 1.85, indicating a clear bearish tilt. The market has been relatively quiet, but bearish pressure is growing.

News Highlights

Recent news highlights key developments in the industrial and medical sectors that could indirectly influence Fortive’s performance:

• Farm machinery recovery in Brazil: Sales have stabilized with a 12% year-over-year increase from November 2024 to February 2025. This sectoral recovery could provide tailwinds to companies in industrial manufacturing.
• US vaccine policy shift: Recent changes to how vaccines are approved and recommended by the US Department of Health and Human Services could alter public health funding and R&D priorities, which may affect Fortive’s healthcare-related operations.
• New Web3 smartphone launch by GMTech: While not directly related to Fortive, this innovation in tech hardware underscores ongoing shifts in tech investment, which could influence market sentiment in broader industrial stocks.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Three major institutions have offered recent insight, with a simple average rating of 3.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 4.12. Analysts are split on Fortive, with all three ratings leaning neutral, suggesting a cautious stance.

Here’s a breakdown of the key fundamental factors and their respective internal diagnostic scores (0-10) (higher is better):

• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): -2.25% (Score: 6.0)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth rate): -15.90% (Score: 4.0)
• Net income to revenue ratio: 3.54% (Score: 8.0)
• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate): -13.91% (Score: 4.0)
• Profit-MV: -0.25 (Score: 7.0)
• Asset-MV: 28.92% (Score: 6.0)
• Cash-MV: -0.17 (Score: 4.0)

The mixed fundamental picture, with some solid operating margins but declining growth in profit and earnings, reflects a company in transition.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are negative across all categories, with the overall trend scoring a internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 7.49, which is rated as "good." However, this is somewhat misleading as all major flow categories—from extra-large to small—show negative sentiment. This suggests that despite positive institutional inflows, large investors are cautious about FTV’s near-term outlook.

Key flow ratios include:

• Small inflow ratio: 46.57%
• Medium inflow ratio: 43.35%
• Large inflow ratio: 42.70%
• Extra-large inflow ratio: 40.08%

These figures indicate that smaller retail investors are more active than larger institutional ones, a trend that could shift quickly in either direction with new catalysts.

Key Technical Signals

Fortive’s technical landscape is bleak, with no bullish indicators and a heavy bearish tilt. The internal diagnostic score (0-10) for technical strength is a very weak 1.85.

Here’s the breakdown of key signals and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• WR Overbought: Score of 1.0 — a strong bearish signal.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score of 1.29 — neutral bias but historically negative returns.
• Dividend Announcement Date: Score of 1.78 — neutral bias, but with a negative average return of -1.11%.
• Bearish Engulfing: Score of 1.92 — another bearish candlestick pattern.
• WR Oversold: Score of 3.26 — neutral to slightly positive.

Recent indicator activity includes: a WR Overbought on August 22, a MACD Golden Cross on August 14, and a WR Oversold on August 29. The technical landscape suggests fading momentum and caution for new long positions.

Conclusion

Fortive is currently in a technical freefall with no clear signs of reversal. While fundamentals show some resilience in operating margins and institutional ratings are generally neutral, the bearish technical setup and weak money flows suggest caution. Given the internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 1.85 and five bearish indicators, we recommend avoiding new long positions at this time. Investors may want to wait for a clearer reversal signal or improved earnings data before considering a re-entry.