Stock Analysis | Old Dominion Freight Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: While the stock is rising by 3.38% and sees positive fund flows, the technical indicators suggest avoiding the stock due to weak momentum.

News Highlights

1. Trump Tariffs Affect Retailers: Gap announced that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will cost the company $250 million to $300 million annually, which could affect its operating income and investor sentiment.

2. China Trade Policy Changes: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced new visa policies that could affect 300,000 Chinese students, potentially disrupting sectors reliant on international education and cross-border collaboration.

3. ETF Growth in Asia Pacific: Assets invested in the ETF industry in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) hit a new record of $1.25 trillion at the end of April, showing broader investor appetite for diversified funds, though not directly impacting Old Dominion Freight.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The average rating score from analysts is 3.56, while the performance-weighted score stands at 3.43. These ratings are relatively consistent, with most analysts giving "Neutral" and "Buy" ratings. The current price trend shows a 3.38% rise, aligning with the overall market expectation of a neutral stance.

• Price-to-Cash Flow (PCF): 46.81, with an internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 1.
• EV/EBIT: 37.39, score: 1.
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 40.01%, score: 3.
• Non-Current Assets / Total Assets: 87.42%, score: 3.
• Gross Margin After Research (GMAR): 100.00%, score: 1.
• Rate of Return on Total Assets: 12.56%, score: 2.
• Current Assets Turnover Ratio: 3.92, score: 2.
• Annualized Return on Total Assets: 25.12%, score: 2.
• Current Assets / Total Assets: 12.58%, score: 3.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows into Old Dominion Freight have been positive, with large, extra-large, and block fund flows showing inflow ratios of 51.73%, 59.73%, and 56.35% respectively. This suggests institutional confidence and suggests that big-money players are accumulating positions. Retail investors also contributed, with small and medium inflow ratios of 51.09% and 51.27%, indicating retail participation remains moderate.

Key Technical Signals

According to our proprietary technical model, the internal diagnostic score (0-10) is 1.52, indicating a weak trend with bearish signals dominating.

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold: Score: 2.57. This suggests a slight positive bias but remains limited in impact.
• Williams %R (WR) Overbought: Score: 1.00. A clear bearish signal indicating overbought conditions.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score: 1.00. Another bearish signal as the Golden Cross did not deliver as expected.

Key recent chart patterns include multiple WR Overbought signals from August 11 to 19, 2025, reinforcing the idea of overbought conditions with a high risk of pullback.

Conclusion

Old Dominion Freight is currently rising on strong institutional and retail inflows, with a fundamental score (0-10) of 5.03 and a fund-flow score (0-10) of 8.06. However, the technical indicators are weak with a score of 1.52 and bearish signals dominating. Given the current market conditions and technical weakness, it may be wise for investors to consider waiting for a pull-back before initiating or increasing positions.