Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Deere's technical indicators signal weakness, while mixed analyst ratings and improving fundamentals present a complex picture.

The stock has seen a recent price drop of 4.58%, and the overall technical outlook is bearish. Analysts have issued a mix of Neutral, Strong Buy, and Buy ratings, but the weighted average suggests caution. Meanwhile, the internal diagnostic fundamental score is 4.89, indicating moderate health, though technical signals suggest staying on the sidelines for now.

2. News Highlights

Recent developments in Deere's sector and broader markets include:

• Farm machinery industry eyes modest recovery – The agricultural equipment market is showing early signs of stabilization, with revenue up 12% in early 2025 compared to the same period a year prior. This could benefit Deere, a major player in the space.
• Trump fast-tracks Utah uranium mine – While unrelated to Deere directly, a policy shift under President Trump could signal a broader economic and industrial policy tailwind, especially in capital-intensive sectors like machinery and construction.
• Earnings call transcript: Titan Machinery beats Q1 2025 EPS expectations – This signals potential strength in the broader farm equipment sector and may indirectly influence Deere’s demand for equipment and services.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Ratings:

• Average rating score (simple mean): 4.00
• Weighted rating score (performance-weighted): 2.84
• Rating dispersion: High – Analysts have not reached consensus, with ratings ranging from Strong Buy to Neutral.

The discrepancy between the simple average and performance-weighted rating highlights the varied track records of analysts. While the simple average is relatively positive, the performance-weighted score suggests a more cautious approach.

Key Fundamental Factor Values:

• Revenue-MV: 1 – An internal diagnostic score of 9.53/10.
• EV/EBIT: 73.01 – Score: 8.18/10.
• Profit-MV: -14.08% – Score: 12.32/10.
• PE: 90.71 – Score: 10.84/10.
• ROA: 1.69% – Score: 9.08/10.
• Long-term debt to working capital ratio: 93.64% – Score: 9.36/10.
• Interest coverage ratio: 300.31% – Score: 10.91/10.
• CFOA: 1.60% – Score: 8.45/10.
• Asset-MV: 27.23% – Score: 8.00/10.
• Cash-MV: -24.22% – Score: 13.33/10.

While the company maintains strong interest coverage and debt ratios, the cash-to-market value and profit-to-market value scores signal some caution. These mixed signals suggest investors should closely watch cash flow and earnings performance in the coming quarters.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money vs. retail flows:

• Overall inflow ratio: 48.66% – indicating that roughly half of the capital is flowing into the stock.
• Big-money trend: Negative – large and extra-large investors are pulling back.
• Retail trend: Positive – smaller investors are still showing some interest.
• Overall score: 7.68 – this is a good internal diagnostic score, suggesting retail inflows could support the stock in the short term.

Despite the positive retail trend, the broader institutional outflows are a sign of caution among major investors. This divergence between big and small money may prolong volatility in the near term.

5. Key Technical Signals

Deere's technical indicators remain weak, with 3 bearish signals outpacing 1 bullish indicator over the last 5 days. The internal diagnostic technical score is 3.02, far below the neutral threshold of 5.

Recent indicators by date:

• 2025-09-03: WR Oversold – Internal score: 7.50 (bullish bias).
• 2025-08-25: Bearish Engulfing – Internal score: 2.15 (bearish).
• 2025-08-27: Dividend Announcement Date – Internal score: 1.00 (bearish).
• 2025-08-27: Bullish Engulfing – Internal score: 1.42 (bearish).
• 2025-08-29: WR Oversold – Internal score: 7.50 (bullish).

These signals suggest mixed momentum in the stock. The WR Oversold indicator has a strong bullish bias historically, but the bearish engulfing and dividend-related signals have weighed more heavily in recent days. Investors should monitor whether the bearish patterns gain further traction or if a short-term rebound emerges.

6. Conclusion

Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer technical signals before entering long positions in Deere. While the fundamentals remain largely sound and the retail flow is positive, the technical trend is currently weak with bearish momentum dominating. Analysts remain divided, and large investors are pulling back. Now is likely a time to observe, not act.