Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Navigating Volatility Amid Mixed Fundamentals and Technical Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Deere's stock is facing a weak technical outlook (internal diagnostic score of 4.66), with conflicting indicators and a recent price drop of -4.26%. The fundamentals, however, show a slightly stronger foundation (7.03 score), pointing to a cautious but not entirely negative outlook.

2. News Highlights

Deere's core agricultural machinery market is showing early signs of recovery. Pedro Estevão Bastos from Abimaq noted a 12% revenue increase in Brazil from November 2024 to February 2025. While this isn’t directly tied to DE’s share price, it suggests improving demand in key markets. On the flip side, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ recent changes to its COVID-19 vaccine policy may indirectly impact global supply chains and, thus, machinery demand in the near term.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Analyst Rating: 4.00 (simple mean of ratings from three analysts).

Weighted Rating (performance-weighted): 3.06

Rating Consistency: Analysts are divided, with one "Strong Buy", one "Buy", and one "Neutral" rating within the past week. This mixed consensus contrasts with the stock’s negative price trend.

Fundamental Highlights:

• Net profit margin: 2.44% (internal diagnostic score: 4)
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth): -39.83% (score: 1)
• Basic EPS growth: -33.45% (score: 1)
• Revenue to market value ratio: 0.22 (score: 3)
• Shareholders’ equity growth: 6.35% (score: 3)

While some fundamentals remain robust (e.g., equity growth), key metrics like profit and EPS are declining, which may weigh on investor sentiment despite recent inflows.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money is moving in favor of Deere, with positive flow across all investor categories. The large and extra-large investor groups show slightly weaker trends (with the extra-large group even trending negatively), but overall inflow ratios remain well above 50% across the board. The strongest inflow ratios are observed among medium-sized investors (50.25%), followed by small (50.84%).

5. Key Technical Signals

Technical Score: 4.66 (internal diagnostic score), signaling weak technology and the need for caution.

Recent Indicators by Date (August 11–14, 2025):

• August 13: MACD Golden Cross (neutral bias, internal score: 3.03)
• August 14: WR Oversold (bullish bias, score: 7.6), MACD Death Cross (bearish, score: 1.0), and Earnings Release Date (strong bullish, score: 8.1)

Key Insights: Technical indicators remain mixed, with volatile signals making the trend direction unclear. The market appears to be in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces—particularly around the earnings date. Investors should be cautious and watch for follow-through after earnings and the dividend payable date.

6. Conclusion

Deere is caught in a mixed crosscurrent of fundamentals and technicals. While big money is flowing in (fund flow score: 7.84), the recent price drop and conflicting technical signals suggest short-term caution. The key takeaway for investors: Wait for clarity post-earnings. If the upcoming earnings report fails to reassure analysts and the market, the stock could face renewed selling pressure. However, a strong earnings result—especially with positive cash flow—could unlock the recent bullish indicators. Stay tuned for August 14’s report and monitor the MACD crossover resolution for trend confirmation.