Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Navigating a Mixed Signals Landscape for DE

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Deere (DE) faces a mixed technical landscape with weak momentum and diverging analyst views, but strong inflows from large investors.

The stock has seen a recent price decline of 4.63%, but is supported by an internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 7.85 on fund flow patterns, indicating positive large-cap inflows. However, the technical score is only 4.86, suggesting weak technology and the need for caution.

News Highlights

Recent news suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural equipment sector:

• Deere's industry peers are seeing modest stabilization in sales, with revenue rising 12% from November 2024 to February 2025, per Brazilian industry reports.
• India is pushing for indigenous food processing machinery to reduce reliance on imports, which could influence global demand patterns in the long-term.
• U.S. visa policy changes affecting Chinese students could indirectly impact global supply chains, though no direct link to Deere has been established.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided, with 4 firms involved and a simple average rating of 4.25 versus a performance-weighted score of 2.34. This suggests a high dispersion in expectations and a poor historical performance from most analysts.

• Baird gave a "Neutral" rating with a perfect 100.0% historical win rate, but its average return was -0.97%.
• Truist Securities and DA Davidson both rated "Strong Buy," but with poor historical records and negative average returns (-1.52% and -2.40%, respectively).

Key fundamentals show a mixed performance:

• ROA (Return on Assets): 1.69% (internal diagnostic score: 2.14)
• ROE (Return on Equity): 7.39% (internal diagnostic score: 4.49)
• CFOA (Cash Flow from Operations to Assets): 1.60% (internal diagnostic score: 4.49)
• EV/EBIT: 65.86x (internal diagnostic score: 2.14)
• Basic earnings per share YoY growth: -33.45% (internal diagnostic score: 2.94)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders YoY growth: -35.14% (internal diagnostic score: 2.94)

Money-Flow Trends

Large institutional flows are currently positive, with large and extra-large flows trending upward. The internal diagnostic score (0-10) for fund flow is 7.85, indicating strong inflow from big money.

Breakdown of inflow ratios (higher is better):

• Small: 50.79%
• Medium: 49.97%
• Large: 51.29%
• Extra-large: 49.48%

This suggests institutional confidence, while retail and small-cap flows remain relatively balanced.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators are mixed, with some bullish and bearish signals emerging in the last 5 days:

• WR Oversold: 7.77 (internal diagnostic score – bullish bias with 63.16% win rate)
• MACD Death Cross: 2.14 (internal diagnostic score – neutral bias with 42.86% win rate)
• Bearish Engulfing: 3.67 (internal diagnostic score – neutral rise with 45.45% win rate)
• MACD Golden Cross: 4.49 (internal diagnostic score – neutral rise with 50.0% win rate)
• Earnings Release Date: 8.13 (internal diagnostic score – strong bullish with 100.0% win rate)
• Bullish Engulfing: 2.94 (internal diagnostic score – neutral bias with 44.44% win rate)

Recent pattern highlights:

• 2025-08-14: WR Oversold, MACD Death Cross, Earnings Release Date
• 2025-08-13: MACD Golden Cross
• 2025-08-15: Bullish Engulfing
• 2025-08-20: Bullish Engulfing

The key insight is that market momentum is unclear, with both long and short signals balanced. Investors are advised to watch market changes closely.

Conclusion

Deere is in a transition phase with conflicting signals across technical and fundamental metrics. While institutional money is flowing in and some technical indicators show bullish potential, the internal diagnostic technical score of 4.86 suggests weak technology and volatility.

Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer trend or earnings confirmation before entering new positions, especially with the August 14 earnings release already part of the recent mix of signals.