Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Navigating a Mixed Market Picture

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Deere's stock (DE) has seen a recent price drop of 2.54%, with analysts and technical indicators suggesting a weak and volatile outlook.

News Highlights

1. Farm Machinery Industry Sees Modest Recovery - Sales in the agricultural machinery sector began to stabilize in late 2024, with revenue rising 12% in early 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. This could bode well for Deere in the long run, as demand for farm equipment is expected to trend upward.

2. Earnings Beat in Q1 2025 - Titan Machinery, a key competitor in farm equipment, reported better-than-expected earnings in Q1 2025. While this is positive for the sector, it adds to the pressure on Deere to outperform in the second half of the year.

3. ETF Industry Growth in Asia Pacific - The ETF industry in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) reached a record $1.25 trillion in assets by April 2025. While this doesn’t directly impact Deere, it highlights ongoing global investment trends that may influence market sentiment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Consensus: The average rating score is 4.25, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.34. This suggests a mixed bag of views, with some analysts more optimistic than others.

Ratings Consistency: The ratings are not consistent, with 2 "Strong Buy" ratings, 1 "Buy," and 1 "Neutral" recommendation in the last 20 days. The average price trend has been down, which matches the weighted expectations.

Fundamental Highlights:

• Price-to-Earnings (PE): 90.71 (value: 90.71) Internal diagnostic score: 10.25
• EV/EBIT: 73.01 (value: 73.01) Internal diagnostic score: 7.66
• Revenue-Market Value (Revenue-MV): 0.22 (value: 0.22) Internal diagnostic score: 7.69
• Basic EPS Growth (YoY): -33.45% (value: -33.45) Internal diagnostic score: 10.48
• Cash-Up: 24.13% (value: 0.24) Internal diagnostic score: 13.35
• Cash-Market Value (Cash-MV): -24.22% (value: -0.24) Internal diagnostic score: 13.12

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is currently moving with caution, with an overall inflow ratio of 49.33% and a negative block trend. Retail investors are showing a positive small-trend (50.32% inflow ratio), but larger institutional and ultra-large funds are trending negatively (49.51% and 48.88% inflow ratios, respectively). This mixed flow pattern suggests conflicting signals between retail and big money sentiment.

Key Technical Signals

Deere’s technical indicators are currently bearish, with a technical score of 3.66 and the overall trend suggesting the stock is best avoided. Here's a breakdown of recent signals:

• WR Oversold: A bullish bias with an internal diagnostic score of 7.77, but alone it’s not enough to counter other negative signals.
• Bearish Engulfing: A neutral bias with an internal diagnostic score of 3.67.
• Dividend Announcement Date: A bearish bias with an internal diagnostic score of 1.00.
• Bullish Engulfing: A neutral bias with an internal diagnostic score of 2.20.

Over the past five days, key patterns included a WR Oversold signal on 2025-08-29 and a Bullish Engulfing pattern on 2025-08-27, followed by a Bearish Engulfing on 2025-08-25. These mixed signals confirm the volatility mentioned in the technical summary.

Conclusion

Deere is currently in a weak technical position with mixed analyst sentiment and conflicting money flows. While the fundamentals show some strong areas (particularly cash positions), the bearish technical signals and weak earnings growth make it a high-risk pick right now.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pullback before entering a position. Investors should keep an eye on upcoming earnings reports and any new developments in the agricultural sector for potential turning points.