Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Volatility and Strategic Earnings Focus

Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Deere (DE) is showing a weak technical profile (internal diagnostic score: 4.86) with conflicting chart patterns and a recent 2.17% price decline, suggesting caution.

News Highlights

Recent developments suggest mixed implications for Deere’s sector:

• May 29 – Farm machinery industry eyes modest recovery: Brazilian industry leaders report a 12% revenue increase from November 2024 to February 2025, signaling a potential uplift in agricultural machinery demand. This could benefit Deere’s equipment segment in the long term.
• May 30 – GMTECH Inc. Launches Web3 Smartphone: While not directly related, the surge in tech innovation highlights broader industry shifts that may influence investor sentiment across sectors, including industrial and machinery stocks.
• May 31 – ETFGI reports record Asia Pacific ETF assets: Asia’s growing investment in ETFs may boost broader market liquidity, indirectly supporting Deere’s market visibility and investor access.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided (4 institutions, 2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 1 Neutral), with a simple average rating of 4.25 and a performance-weighted rating of 3.94. The current price decline (-2.17%) contrasts with this neutral to bullish guidance, suggesting market expectations may not yet align with fundamentals.

Key fundamental indicators (values as of latest report):

• Net Assets per Share (YoY growth rate): 6.72% — internal diagnostic score: 1.
• EV/EBIT: 73.01 — internal diagnostic score: 2.
• ROA: 1.69% — internal diagnostic score: 1.
• Net Income/Revenue: 51.11% — internal diagnostic score: 2.
• ROE: 7.39% — internal diagnostic score: 1.
• CFOA: 1.60% — internal diagnostic score: 1.
• Asset-MV: 27.06% — internal diagnostic score: 1.
• Cash-MV: -24.44% — internal diagnostic score: 3.
• Basic EPS (YoY growth rate): -33.45% — internal diagnostic score: 2.
• Profit-MV: -14.33 — internal diagnostic score: 3.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is showing a positive inflow (internal diagnostic score: 7.84), with 50.11% of block trading volume in favor of Deere. However, smaller traders are more mixed, with inflow ratios ranging between 49.5% and 50.7%, indicating some retail hesitancy. This suggests institutional confidence, but retail caution may delay broader price action.

Key Technical Signals

Deere’s chart signals are mixed and volatile, with the following key indicators (all internal diagnostic scores 0-10):

• Earnings Release Date: Strong bullish (8.13) — A high score due to historical returns of 3.76% and a perfect 100% win rate over four instances.
• WR Oversold: Bullish bias (7.77) — Indicates a potential rebound, with a 63.16% win rate on 38 signals.
• MACD Death Cross: Neutral (2.14) — A bearish signal with weak historical returns and a 42.86% win rate.
• Bearish Engulfing: Neutral rise (3.67) — A mixed pattern, with average returns of 1.44% and a 45.45% win rate.

Key chart patterns in the last 5 days:

• August 14: WR Oversold, MACD Death Cross, and Earnings Release Date occurred together — a bullish earnings-related event amid bearish momentum.
• August 15: Bullish Engulfing — a positive reversal pattern.
• August 18: Strong Buy recommendation from DA Davidson, which may support short-term price stability.

Internal technical insight: “Technical indicators show that the market is in a volatile state, and the direction is not clear enough. Long-short signals are relatively balanced, and it is suggested to pay close attention to market changes.”

Conclusion

With mixed analyst ratings, modestly positive money flow, and conflicting technical signals, Deere’s outlook remains uncertain. The upcoming earnings event (August 14) is critical, given its strong historical performance. Investors are advised to wait for a clearer directional signal post-earnings before committing capital. Given the current environment, a cautious stance is warranted.