Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Volatility

Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Deere (DE) faces a turbulent technical outlook with mixed analyst views. Stance: Cautious.

News Highlights

1. Farm Machinery Industry Eyes Modest Recovery

A report notes that farm machinery revenue increased by 12% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This suggests a potential recovery in Deere’s core market, but investors should remain cautious as the industry is still in a delicate phase.

2. Indonesia-Singapore Solar and Battery Storage Project Milestone

Though not directly tied to Deere, the milestone in a large-scale renewable energy project highlights ongoing global investment in infrastructure, a sector in which Deere has a stake through its agribusiness and construction equipment divisions.

3. New York Times Stock Gets Price Target Boost

While unrelated to Deere, the recent positive news in the media sector shows how strategic partnerships and licensing deals can positively impact stock performance. This serves as a reminder of the importance of external partnerships in driving value.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Deere has a simple average analyst rating of 4.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 4.30, indicating a generally optimistic outlook among analysts. However, these ratings are not fully aligned with the recent price trend, which shows a fall of -0.40% over the last five days. The slight dispersion in ratings suggests some analysts remain skeptical.

Key Fundamental Values and Scores:

• ROE (Return on Equity): 7.39% – internal diagnostic score: 2.
• ROA (Return on Assets): 1.69% – internal diagnostic score: 1.
• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 14.11% – internal diagnostic score: 3.
• EV/EBIT: 65.86 – internal diagnostic score: 2.
• PE Ratio: 90.71 – internal diagnostic score: 2.
• Net Profit YoY Growth: -35.14% – internal diagnostic score: 3.

Money-Flow Trends

The fund-flow score for Deere is 7.81 (good), indicating that overall money is flowing into the stock. Larger institutional and block investors are showing a positive bias, with Large_inflow_ratio at 0.5165 and block_inflow_ratio at 0.5015. However, the Extra-large trend is negative, suggesting some big money may be rotating out.

Key Technical Signals

Deere's technical score is 3.83, and the overall trend is weak. Here’s a breakdown of key indicators and internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• WR Oversold: internal diagnostic score: 7.60 – suggesting a bullish bias.
• MACD Death Cross: internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – indicating a bearish signal.
• Marubozu White: internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – also bearish.
• Dividend Payable Date: internal diagnostic score: 7.08 – showing a neutral to positive bias.
• WR Overbought: internal diagnostic score: 1.63 – weak and neutral.
• Bearish Engulfing: internal diagnostic score: 4.67 – slightly bearish but not strong.

Recent Chart Patterns by Date:

• 2025-08-01: WR Oversold (bullish)
• 2025-08-05: MACD Death Cross (bearish)
• 2025-08-08: Dividend Payable Date (neutral to bullish)
• 2025-07-31: WR Overbought and Marubozu White (bearish)

Key Insights: The technical indicators suggest a weak and volatile market with no clear direction. While there are some bullish signals (like WR Oversold and dividend dates), bearish signals such as MACD Death Cross and Marubozu White dominate. Investors should closely monitor price movements and volume patterns in the coming days.

Conclusion

Deere is currently showing mixed signals. While fundamental metrics like ROE and NPM remain relatively strong, technical indicators are largely bearish, with conflicting signals from different chart patterns. The internal technical score of 3.83 suggests caution. Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer technical direction before entering a position, and keep an eye on upcoming earnings and industry trends for confirmation of recovery.