Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - Mixed Signals as Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiment Emerge

1. Market Snapshot

Deere (DE) appears to be in a vulnerable technical position, with a weak score of 4.52 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) and a cautionary trend. Meanwhile, fundamental metrics are moderately positive with a 5.59 (internal diagnostic score), but the recent price drop of 2.75% has created a mismatch with analyst expectations.

2. News Highlights

• May 29, 2025 - Farm machinery industry eyes modest recovery: The sector is showing early signs of stabilization, with revenue up 12% from November 2024 to February 2025. This could be a positive tailwind for Deere as agricultural demand picks up.
• May 31, 2025 - ETFGI reports record assets in Asia-Pacific ETFs: This development in global investment trends could signal increased appetite for large-cap names like Deere, particularly if institutional flows continue to favor equities.
• May 31, 2025 - New data show Genentech's Itovebi extended survival in HR-positive breast cancer: While unrelated to Deere, it highlights broader positive momentum in innovation-driven sectors, which may indirectly influence investor sentiment in capital goods sectors like Deere.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have issued 4 recent ratings for Deere, including two "Strong Buy" and one "Buy", with a 1 "Neutral" recommendation. The simple average rating is 4.25 while the performance-weighted rating is 3.94, reflecting mixed confidence. Analysts also show high dispersion, indicating no strong consensus on Deere's direction.

This contrasts with Deere’s current price drop of -2.75%, which has created a divergence from the weighted expectation of the market. Here are key fundamental metrics:

• EV/EBIT: 73.01 (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• PE ratio: 90.71 (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Operating cash flow per share (YoY growth %): -8.41% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth %): -35.14% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Cash to market cap ratio: -24.48% (internal diagnostic score: 3)

These metrics suggest moderate to weak fundamentals with mixed performance and valuation signs.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money is currently showing a positive trend in Deere, with the fund-flow score at 7.85 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10). Notably, extra-large investors have shown negative inflow (trend: negative), but large and medium-sized funds have all shown positive inflow ratios (above 0.50), indicating some confidence in the long-term story.

Retail flows are also positive, with small and medium inflow ratios at 0.5089 and 0.5008 respectively. The overall inflow ratio is 0.5019, suggesting that the retail market is generally supporting Deere despite short-term volatility.

5. Key Technical Signals

Deere’s technical outlook is mixed with a 4.52 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) and a weak trend warning. Here are the key internal diagnostic scores for the most relevant indicators:

• Earnings Release Date: 8.13 (internal diagnostic score), indicating strong potential for movement around this event.
• WR Oversold: 7.77 (internal diagnostic score), suggesting short-term support.
• Bullish Engulfing: 1.88 (internal diagnostic score), a weak signal that has historically performed poorly.
• MACD Death Cross: 2.14 (internal diagnostic score), indicating bearish momentum.

Recent chart patterns include a MACD Golden Cross on August 13, a WR Oversold and MACD Death Cross on August 14, and a Bullish Engulfing on August 15. These signals are conflicting, and the key insight is that the market is volatile with no clear direction.

6. Conclusion

Deere is in a precarious technical position with weak momentum and mixed analyst signals. The fund-flow trends are positive but not overwhelming, and fundamental metrics suggest a mixed story at best. Investors should watch August 15's earnings release closely, as it may provide a catalyst for direction. In the meantime, a wait-and-see approach is advised, particularly given the 4.52 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) technical warning.