Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - A Mixed Bag as Technical Signals and Analysts Diverge

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Deere (DE) shares have fallen by 2.59% recently, with technical indicators leaning bearish and analysts showing mixed views.

The stock currently faces a bearish outlook from a technical standpoint, with three bearish signals outweighing one bullish indicator. Meanwhile, analysts have a simple average rating of 4.00 but a performance-weighted rating of only 2.65, indicating a lack of consensus and weaker historical performance.

2. News Highlights

Deere operates in the agriculture machinery sector, and recent news highlights suggest a modest recovery in the farm machinery market. According to Pedro Estevão Bastos, president of the Agricultural Machinery and Implements Sector Chamber (CSMIA) in Brazil, sales stabilized in late 2024, and revenue rose 12% in early 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. This could be a positive sign for Deere’s long-term demand.

Separately, Titan Machinery recently beat its Q1 2025 earnings expectations. While not a direct competitor, this may signal a potential industry-wide trend of improving performance, which could benefit Deere if demand for farm equipment grows in the second half of the year.

However, unrelated global news, including U.S. changes to vaccine policies and student visa restrictions, may create broader macroeconomic uncertainty, which could indirectly affect Deere’s international operations.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: The simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.65, suggesting that analysts with stronger historical performance have been more bearish.

Rating Consistency: There's notable dispersion among analysts, with ratings ranging from "Strong Buy" to "Underperform." This divergence indicates uncertainty in the outlook for Deere.

Price Trend Alignment: The current price drop (-2.59%) aligns with the weighted average of analyst expectations, which are relatively neutral to bearish.

Key Fundamental Factors:

• PE Ratio: 90.71 (internal diagnostic score: 3) — a high valuation that may suggest overvaluation or high growth expectations.
• EV/EBIT: 73.01 (score: 3) — also elevated, indicating a high enterprise value relative to earnings.
• Basic EPS YoY Growth: -33.45% (score: 3) — significant earnings contraction.
• Diluted EPS YoY Growth: -33.38% (score: 3) — similarly weak.
• Net Profit YoY Growth: -35.14% (score: 3) — further evidence of declining profitability.
• Cash-MV: -0.24 (score: 4) — negative cash flow relative to market value.

These fundamentals suggest that while Deere has strong balance sheet metrics like revenue-to-market value (Revenue-MV, score: 2), its earnings and growth metrics are weak, contributing to a cautious outlook.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Deere has seen mixed money flow over the past few weeks. While small-cap investors have shown a positive trend (Small_trend: positive), larger institutional investors have been net sellers. The block, large, and extra-large investor trends are all negative, and the overall trend remains bearish.

Flow Ratios:

• Small Inflow Ratio: 0.50
• Medium Inflow Ratio: 0.496
• Large Inflow Ratio: 0.4997
• Extra-large Inflow Ratio: 0.486

The fund-flow score is 7.77 (internal diagnostic score: 7.77), which is considered good, but it contrasts with the bearish technical and fundamental signals. Retail investors may be cautiously optimistic, but institutional flows suggest they're taking a more defensive stance.

5. Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Deere is weak, with bearish signals dominating. The recent period (last five days) has seen several notable chart patterns:

• WR Oversold (internal diagnostic score: 7.77) — indicates a potential short-term rebound, though it's not strong enough to offset other bearish signals.
• Bearish Engulfing (score: 2.88) — a bearish reversal pattern, though it has a neutral bias.
• Bullish Engulfing (score: 1.42) — usually a bullish signal, but here it's rated as bearish, suggesting market confusion.
• Dividend Announcement Date (score: 1) — consistently bearish, with historical returns trending negative.

Recent Chart Patterns:

• 2025-08-15: Bullish Engulfing
• 2025-08-25: Bearish Engulfing
• 2025-08-27: Dividend Announcement Date + Bullish Engulfing
• 2025-08-29: WR Oversold

The recent indicators by date show a volatile and mixed signal environment. Bearish Engulfing and Dividend Announcement Date are particularly concerning, with the former having a 41.7% win rate and the latter showing no historical success (0% win rate).

Key Insight: Technical indicators suggest the market is in a volatile state with no clear direction. Bearish signals (3) are clearly dominant over bullish ones (1), and it's advised to avoid the stock from a technical perspective.

6. Conclusion

Deere is currently in a challenging position, with weak technical signals, mixed analyst ratings, and declining fundamentals. While the fund-flow score is positive, it doesn't override the bearish trends from other areas.

Actionable Takeaway: Investors should consider avoiding Deere for now. If interested in the sector, it might be better to wait for a clearer trend or a pullback with stronger confirmation. Those who are invested should closely monitor the next earnings report and any new guidance from management, which could provide more clarity on the company's outlook.