Stock Analysis | Deere Outlook - A Cautionary Signal Amid Mixed Market Forces

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Deere's stock (DE) has fallen by 3.43% in recent sessions, signaling a weak price trend, despite strong inflow in certain capital categories.

News Highlights

Recent news points to a mixed environment for Deere. In agriculture, farm machinery sales in Brazil showed a 12% year-over-year rise in early 2025, which could bode well for Deere’s international demand. However, news of a new U.S. visa policy targeting Chinese students may indirectly impact global supply chains, while vaccine policy changes in the U.S. continue to shape market sentiment more broadly. Additionally, ETFGI reported a record $1.25 trillion in ETF assets in the Asia-Pacific region, suggesting broader market liquidity could support Deere’s long-term appeal.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape shows a mixed outlook. A simple average rating of 4.25 suggests a cautiously optimistic stance, while a performance-weighted rating of 3.52 implies weaker historical returns. Ratings range from “Strong Buy” to “Neutral,” with no clear consensus among analysts. This contrasts with Deere’s current price decline, highlighting uncertainty.

Key fundamental factors and their model scores:

• EV/EBIT: 65.86 (score: 3) – A high value may indicate valuation stress.
• Basic EPS YoY growth: -33.45% (score: 2) – A sharp decline in earnings.
• Net operating cash flow YoY: -39.83% (score: 2) – Cash generation is under pressure.
• Net profit YoY: -35.14% (score: 3) – Margins are shrinking.
• Net assets per share growth: 6.72% (score: 1) – Suggests weak balance sheet expansion.

Despite some positive cash flow indicators (e.g., Net operating cash flow per share up 2.92%), the negative trend in earnings and profit metrics weighs heavily on the model’s fundamental score of 6.64.

Money-Flow Trends

Deere has seen positive fund-flow signals overall, with the fund-flow model assigning it a 7.85 score labeled “good.” Large and medium-sized institutional investors are showing more confidence, with inflow ratios above 50% for most categories. However, the extra-large trend is negative, suggesting top-tier funds are cautious. Retail investors also remain cautiously optimistic, as reflected in the 50.49% inflow ratio for block trading.

Key Technical Signals

Deere’s technical indicators are mixed. While the Williams %R Oversold signal and Earnings Release Date are bullish (scores of 7.6 and 8.1, respectively), bearish signals like the MACD Death Cross (score: 1) and Bullish Engulfing (score: 1.88) dominate the recent chart.

Recent chart patterns by date:

• August 15: MACD Death Cross (bearish signal)
• August 13: MACD Golden Cross (neutral signal)
• August 15: Bearish Engulfing (neutral rise signal)
• August 14: Earnings Release Date + WR Oversold (bullish signals)

Overall, the technical model assigns Deere a 4.12 score, with 5 bearish and 2 bullish indicators over the last five days. The key insight: momentum is unclear, and volatility is high, suggesting a weak technical outlook.

Conclusion

Deere is currently at a crossroads. While institutional flows and a strong earnings date offer short-term optimism, technical and fundamental indicators remain mixed. The internal diagnostic scores suggest caution: a 4.12 technical score, 6.64 fundamental score, and a 7.85 fund-flow score do not align clearly. The best approach may be to monitor the upcoming earnings report closely and consider waiting for a clearer trend to emerge before committing to large positions.